Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) on M. V. Cunha’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NBIS. Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)’s share was trading at $46.3 as of 5^th June.

Nebius Group (NBIS) is a uniquely positioned, under-the-radar AI infrastructure company executing one of the most ambitious growth strategies in the industry. Spun out from Yandex but fully independent and based in the Netherlands, NBIS includes Nebius (AI-native cloud), Avride (autonomous mobility), Toloka (AI data labeling), TripleTen (edtech), and a 28% stake in ClickHouse, the high-performance open-source database.

Nebius itself is scaling rapidly, with ARR growing from $21M at the end of 2023 to a projected $220M+ by March 2025, and targeting $750M–$1B by year-end. This is driven by a surge in customers, GPU capacity scaling from ~2,000 to over 35,000 units, and strong product-market fit across enterprises and AI developers. It operates a vertically integrated stack, from custom data centers and in-house servers to AI Studio, its inference-as-a-service platform offering best-in-class cost efficiency.

Avride brings nearly a decade of R&D in self-driving tech and is capitalizing on its dual focus on autonomous vehicles and delivery robots, while Toloka is emerging as a core infrastructure provider for generative AI firms, already showing strong traction. TripleTen, with a growing U.S. and LatAm presence, is expected to double revenue in 2025. Meanwhile, ClickHouse continues to scale in the fast-growing analytics DBMS market. A Sum-of-the-Parts valuation implies a $21.26B equity value or ~$80/share, excluding cash, assuming 10% share dilution.

Risks include a lack of institutional coverage, legacy perception issues tied to Yandex, and near-term negative cash flows from aggressive capex. But these are offset by long-term secular tailwinds, massive operating leverage, and clear founder alignment.

NBIS is more than a cloud play; it’s a misunderstood platform at the core of the AI economy, with asymmetric upside for those willing to look past the noise.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Nebius Group by Europe-Trader-1991 in May 2025, which aligns with M. V. Cunha’s view. The stock has since appreciated by approximately 23%.  Both highlight Nebius’ explosive growth, AI-native infrastructure, and upside from subsidiaries like Avride and ClickHouse. While Europe-Trader-1991 emphasizes headline growth, Nvidia backing, and undervaluation versus peers, Tiny Stock Ninja adds depth on vertical integration, AI developer traction, and a granular SOTP valuation. Together, they reinforce Nebius as a misunderstood AI platform with significant asymmetric potential.

Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 51 hedge fund portfolios held NBIS at the end of the first quarter which was 66 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of NBIS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.