NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on NCR Atleos Corporation on Jo’s Substack by Jo Vial. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NATL. NCR Atleos Corporation’s share was trading at $37.23 as of January 29th. NATL’s trailing and forward P/E were 20.71 and 7.11, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

NCR Atleos Corporation, a financial technology company, provides self-directed banking solutions to financial institutions, merchants, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers in the United States and internationally. NCR Atleos (NATL), spun off from NCR Voyix in late 2023, remains an underfollowed but fundamentally strong leader in self-service banking, operating 600,000 ATMs across 140 countries with a highly defensive and recurring revenue mix. About 60–70% of its revenue comes from software, maintenance, network transactions, and ATM-as-a-Service (ATMaaS), making its cash flows far more stable than competitors like Diebold Nixdorf (DBD), despite NATL trading at just ~8x NTM P/E versus DBD’s 13–14x.

The market has not fully recognized NATL’s superior business mix and growth profile, largely due to the stock’s short trading history and limited sell-side attention. NATL’s core opportunity lies in the shift from legacy break-fix ATM ownership to ATMaaS, a high-margin outsourcing model where NATL fully manages and operates a bank’s ATM fleet. Only 6% of ATMs serviced today fall under ATMaaS, but management expects this to grow to 125,000 units by 2027, pushing segment gross margins toward 50% and expanding consolidated net income margins from ~4% to the mid-teens.

Industry dynamics support this transition: banks continue to close branches but maintain ATM counts, outsource more functions, and publicly highlight the efficiency benefits of ATMaaS. Competing OEMs lack NATL’s scale or are focused on lower-value hardware sales, reinforcing NATL’s competitive advantage.

With 70% recurring revenue projected to reach 80%, EBITDA margins already at 23% versus DBD’s 14%, and ATMaaS becoming a larger mix of revenue, NATL is positioned for significant multiple expansion. A rerating to ~16x NTM P/E, supported by higher margins and recurring revenue visibility, implies roughly 90% upside even under conservative assumptions, making NATL a compelling underappreciated compounder.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) by Alex Feng in April 2025, which highlighted ATMaaS-driven growth, stronger recurring revenue, and scale advantages. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 37.68% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out. The thesis still stands as ATMaaS adoption continues to accelerate. Jo Vial shares a similar view but emphasizes NATL’s re-rating potential.

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Disclosure: None.