NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on NCR Atleos Corporation on Value Don’t Lie’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NATL. NCR Atleos Corporation’s share was trading at $38.00 as of August 20^th. NATL’s trailing and forward P/E were 22.09 and 9.50 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

NCR Atleos Corp (NATL), the ATM-focused spin-off from October 2023, presents a compelling investment case, trading at 6.3x FY25E EBITDA and 10x earnings with 3x leverage. Historically hardware-centric, NATL has transformed its revenue mix toward recurring streams, driven in large part by the $2.5bn Cardtronics acquisition in 2022. The company generates revenue from hardware, software, services, and network transactions, with its emerging ATMaaS (ATM-as-a-Service) offering poised to be a key growth driver.

ATMaaS allows banks to outsource all ATM operations, improving efficiency and increasing contract lifetime revenue 2.5x relative to legacy models. While still under 6% of total sales, the segment has shown strong early momentum, with Q1 and Q2 revenue growth of 24% and 32%, respectively, and ARR reaching ~$250m.

NATL’s broader self-service banking and network segments are growing modestly, supported by ATMaaS adoption and increasing transaction volumes. Peer comparisons show NATL is competitively positioned alongside Diebold (DBD), Brink’s (BCO), and Euronet Worldwide (EEFT), all of which trade at slightly higher multiples and pursue similar growth strategies. NATL targets 2027 EPS of $6, implying a 20-24% annual growth rate and potential valuation upside to $52–67 per share using peer multiples. Free cash flow generation is substantial, with management expecting ~$700m over six quarters, and leverage is set to fall below 3x by 3Q25, enabling a $200m buyback and flexible capital allocation.

Despite skepticism around the secular ATM market, NATL’s ATMaaS innovation, recurring revenue base, and strong free cash flow provide a clear growth path. Investors have the opportunity to capture early-stage upside at a reasonable 10x earnings multiple, with a multi-year EPS CAGR of ~23%, while strategic execution and market adoption of ATMaaS remain key upside catalysts.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on NCR Atleos Corporation (NATL) by Alex Feng in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s leadership in ATMaaS, shift to recurring revenue, and integration of Cardtronics’ ATM network. The stock has appreciated approximately 41% since coverage, reflecting strong adoption. Value Don’t Lie shares a similar perspective but emphasizes updated trading multiples, near-term growth, and early ATMaaS momentum.

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Disclosure: None.