nCino, Inc. (NCNO): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on nCino, Inc. on Valueinvestorsclub.com by coyote. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NCNO. nCino, Inc.’s share was trading at $24.64 as of November 26th. NCNO’s forward P/E was 23.64 according to Yahoo Finance.

nCino is the leading cloud-native software platform for financial institutions, with a dominant position in commercial lending and a deeply entrenched competitive moat. The company has faced temporary headwinds from a tight monetary environment, banking sector disruption, and the mortgage collapse, which have compressed its valuation relative to high-quality vertical SaaS peers.

These challenges are abating, creating a strong risk-reward opportunity as nCino enters an inflection point with international expansion, cross-selling of matured products, and a unique AI strategy leveraging its decade-long, process-centric dataset. The platform serves over 2,700 financial institutions, including marquee clients such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and TD Bank, and covers commercial lending, consumer lending, mortgages, and AI-powered analytics modules under “nIQ.”

nCino’s moat is reinforced by high switching costs, deep integration with Salesforce, and a product suite that is capital-intensive to replicate, making it the only vendor covering the full banking vertical. Growth opportunities remain substantial: commercial client penetration is still under 30%, consumer solutions under 15%, and international revenue is expanding rapidly, with Europe and Japan offering significant upside.

New pricing models tied to customer asset size incentivize broader adoption, while acquisitions like DocFox, FullCircl, and ILT expand onboarding, analytics, and credit union offerings. Its AI initiatives, including Banking Advisor and workflow automation agents, exploit proprietary process data, creating a defensible advantage competitors cannot easily replicate.

Financially, nCino has resilient underlying growth, targeting 15% revenue compounding and long-term EBIT/FCF margins near 25–35%. Despite this, shares trade at a meaningful discount to peers due to recent cyclical challenges. With multiple levers for growth, expanding margins, and private equity interest highlighting strategic value, nCino presents a compelling opportunity for investors ahead of growth reacceleration and a potential rerating.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Fiserv, Inc. (FI) by David in October 2024, which highlighted the company’s sticky customer relationships, dominant core processing systems, and diversified payment solutions. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 69.95% since our coverage due to sector and market pressures. The thesis still stands as its entrenched position provides long-term upside. Coyote shares a similar but emphasizes nCino’s cloud-native platform, AI analytics, and international growth.

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Disclosure: None.