Nayax Ltd. (NYAX): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Nayax Ltd. on The Cash Flow Compounder’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NYAX. Nayax Ltd.’s share was trading at $57.50 as of January 29th. NYAX’s trailing and forward P/E were 91.31 and 48.54 , respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Nayax Ltd. ($NYAX) is a leading player in unattended retail, including vending machines, EV charging stations, and recently attended retail, offering an integrated solution of proprietary POS devices, cloud-based software, and business intelligence tools. The company’s business model combines payment processing fees with SaaS subscription revenue, following a “land and expand” strategy that acquires customers through hardware incentives and grows revenue as clients scale transaction volumes and adopt additional services.

Management demonstrates strong alignment with shareholders, with co-founders owning over 42% of the company and executives receiving nearly half of their compensation in equity. Since its founding in 2005, Nayax has had only one CEO, supporting operational continuity and resilience. The market opportunity is substantial, with a $129 billion industry and a projected four-year CAGR of 19%, driven by secular trends like cashless payments, unattended commerce growth, and data-driven operational optimization. The company operates an asset-light model with predictable recurring revenue, and margins have expanded steadily, with adjusted EBITDA margin targets of 30% by 2028.

Nayax benefits from a wide economic moat due to high switching costs, proprietary technology, regulatory licenses, and integration into essential customer operations, leading to low churn and pricing power. Financially, the company recently achieved profitability, with free cash flow consistency and a solid balance sheet, while projected revenue growth of 23.5% CAGR through 2028 underscores its scalability.

Risks include regulatory changes in payment processing, currency volatility, and exposure to cyclical end-markets. Scoring 19/22 on the Compounder Score, Nayax is classified as “Best-in-Class,” offering an attractive investment opportunity with high-growth potential in an underappreciated, structurally expanding industry.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Nayax Ltd. (NYAX) by Shareholdersunite in October 2024, which highlighted strong recurring revenue growth, expansion into cashless payments and EV charging, and margin improvement. NYAX’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 120.81% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as Nayax remains a leader in unattended retail. The Cash Flow Compounder shares a similar thesis but emphasizes management alignment, economic moat, and free cash flow consistency.

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Disclosure: None.