NatWest Group plc (NYSE:NWG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 3 of 11

But at the moment is very connected to rate rises and given that we are certainly predicting further rate rises in Q3. I probably expect it to attach itself to that as well. Thanks, Alvaro.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Rob Noble of Deutsche Bank.

Rob Noble: I ask on the credit card and the growth in cards, what’s the EIR that you assume against that now that you’ve gone whole market and kind of the quality of the customers that you’re adding as you grow? And secondly, thanks for all the information on the risk profile of the mortgage book. Do you give, what proportion of your book is on high loan to income multiples that are also refinancing soon as well? Obviously, those are the customers that are more at risk. Thank you.

Katie Murray: Yes, sure. Absolutely. So if we look at the credit card book, what we have seen as we’ve gone to more of the whole of market, what we’re actually seeing is, it’s actually slightly better quality that’s coming in. So it’s kind of lifting the quality of that book which we’re pleased about. If I look at the EIR, it depend on the card and how you’re looking at it. But it will be low single digits in terms of EIR, it’s quite conservative in our approach on that piece, so certainly a better quality. When you can certainly see as we looked at mortgages, in terms of that risk profile of the refinancing of the high ones. I’m not giving you the split of the book in that way. But you can see that our average loan to value is 54%.

We have I think less than 3% is sitting at that low that higher LTV level. So it’s a relatively small piece of the book. And given the structure of our book. It’s much more of a five year-book these days that actually, you’ve heard me say earlier that only about 20% of the group is actually refinancing this year. So I think given that high LTV is small and the lower level of refinancing, that’s not something we consider a particular risk for our book as we move forward from here. Thanks, Rob.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Jonathan Pierce of Numis.

Jonathan Pierce: Couple of questions. The first on the margin, the margin looks now to be stabilizing a bit based on your guidance in the second half. So down a few basis points, but nothing that significant, versus what we have been seeing. I was just wondering if you can talk to the moving parts in H2, the ups and the downs, but particularly into 2024, because one would assume that mortgage refinancing pressure is easing maybe deposit churn isn’t quite as significant as you’re expecting for the second half of this year. Whereas you’ve still got obviously the tailwind from the asset repricing from the structural hedge. So I’m wondering about margin dynamics particularly into next year. Could we start seeing it move back up a little bit again.

And just a supplementary to that, the other banks have told us now what the yield on the maturing hedges next year is, it’d be helpful if you could give us that. The second question is on noninterest income weakness. I heard your comments on FX and volatility but the NatWest markets, subsidiary disclosure showed actually not bad performance again in the second quarter. There was though I think, deep in the group announcement, talked to us about Page 83 or something. And notably, big drop in FX trading revenue at the group level. I’m just trying to square the circle here. I’m wondering whether this is anything to do with this FX management of U.S. surplus deposits that you talked about, just after Q1? And if it is, you told us that Q1 that there was a sort of natural offset in net interest income.

So if we get a recovery in noninterest income in the second half, if this is the reason for it in past, is that captured, within the net interest income guidance as well. Thanks very much.

Page 3 of 11