National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE:NFG) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Zach Parham: Thanks, Justin. Maybe just one more on the E&P business, and you talked a little bit about this in your prepared remarks, but could you give us a little more color on the production trajectory through the year? You took up the full year guidance at the midpoint by about 2.5 Bcf, but you’ve previously talked about 1Q production being relatively flat, and you were up 7 Bcf quarter-over-quarter. So just curious kind of how we should think about shaping the production through the rest of the year and maybe at this point if you would expect to be maybe towards the higher end of that range?

Justin Loweth: Sure. So, at this point, the reason – or the reasoning on why Q1 did so well was really a combination of really outstanding work from our operations team in terms of setting GPUs, getting all the wells drilled out and getting those flowed back a little faster during the quarter than we had initially envisioned being possible, so really great job by the team in making that possible. And then quite frankly, we just – we had a lot of wells that we brought on in – 27 in total, and in aggregate, they just beat our expected performance. They came online and cleaned up faster and hit rates in excess of what we initially anticipated. So, a great story, it’s a little earlier and strong well productivity. I will note 19 of the 27 were in our Eastern Development Area as well, but really across the board, good performance.

Right now in Q2, we are at our peak production. So, we have got all that production flowing. We are still in many respects on a lot of those wells in a very flush period. I mentioned we are just beginning to flow back a Tioga-Utica pad right now. And so we are – Q2 will – is expected to be the high point in our production volumes for the fiscal year. And then we really have nothing happening through Q3 and in the next pad online data is late Q4. August, September is kind of what we are targeting. And that’s a good example. Another one where we will really evaluate pricing at that time and how we have been able to shape our marketing book and make some decisions around the right time to flow it back. So, we feel really good about our current guidance range.

I think that’s the right range. And exactly where we are relative to the midpoint of that is probably a little TBD, just depending upon everything I just outlined. And the other thing I will just highlight again is, our guidance does not incorporate a pricing curtailment. So, to the extent some of those that 30-Bs, pricing is really challenged at different times. It’s possible some of that will come out, and we will just hold that back for a future time. But the number I am giving you is a clean – on the – clean number, assuming we flow exactly as I have just outlined it to you.

Zach Parham: Got it. Thanks Justin. Appreciate the color.

Operator: Our next question comes from Trafford Lamar from Raymond James. Trafford, your line is now open.

Trafford Lamar: Thanks guys and congrats on a great quarter. Just got one quick one, focusing on the equitable origin A-grade, I would love to get your thoughts in the near-term RSG market? And maybe what premium to NYMEX you could see possibly in the next 2 years to 3 years? Thanks.

Justin Loweth: And you said the – like responsibly sourced gas and premiums, I just want to make sure I heard that correctly.

Trafford Lamar: Yes. That’s correct. It’s being greater than 100%.

Justin Loweth: Absolutely. Yes. So, the – I would say there are different standards for all of these. Equitable origin is more of an international standard. And so we found particular success selling our certified responsibly sourced gas largely in the Canadian markets. And fortunately, we are piped through National Fuel Supply and Empire into some of those markets. We will continue to pursue those sales. The premiums you get are telling me the exact number. It’s more in the order of magnitude, pennies, not dimes or quarters that you can enjoy. But it’s a great opportunity. I would argue, I think a lot of things we are doing, frankly, position us very well relative to the regulatory environment. And it’s just the way we like to do business.

And so it’s nice to be recognized by third-parties. And if we are able to attract certain utilities and end-user customers that are able to see that and pay a premium, it’s a great opportunity for us. And so we have been able to achieve some premiums for that. Again, I would say it’s pennies, not dimes and quarters. And I think we will continue to have that success.

Trafford Lamar: Great. Appreciate the color, Justin.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from John Abbott from Bank of America. John, your line is now open.

John Abbott: Good morning and thank you for taking our questions. Our first question is to Tim. It’s on the Roadway Excavation Quality Assurance Act. So, in your remarks, Tim, you said that you were still assessing the impact on that. Is the risk that, that goes higher? Is there a risk that, that goes lower? And then just sort of a follow-on, how do you – when you think about that bump-up in CapEx for the utility business, how do we think about – what is your latest thoughts around long-term CapEx for the utility business and then the impact to the free cash flow to the utility business?