Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Murphy USA Inc. on Valueinvestorsclub.com by NZ. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MUSA. Murphy USA Inc.’s share was trading at $387.51 as of December 2nd. MUSA’s trailing and forward P/E were 16.33 and 14.41 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Murphy USA, now combined with QuickChek under the MUSA banner, operates 1,750 fuel stations and convenience stores across the U.S., with a strategic pivot toward food and beverages in larger-format stores. The company benefits from a structurally advantaged fuel business, as average passenger cars in the U.S. are over 12 years old, keeping fuel demand robust while margins have reset higher to ~28–30 cents per gallon, growing at a 4% CAGR since 2020. Political tailwinds favor lower wholesale fuel prices, which tend to expand retail spreads, further supporting profitability.

MUSA positions itself as the “Walmart of gas stations,” with over half of its sites located near Walmart, capitalizing on everyday low pricing and high traffic, even as Walmart itself focuses on e-commerce rather than its fuel brand. Technological gains in vehicle efficiency are offset by an aging vehicle fleet, maintaining structural demand for fuel. Despite a stagnant fuel gallon growth profile and skepticism around its 2028 EBITDA target of $1.2–1.3 billion, the company is generating a stable ~$450 million in free cash flow, which could grow toward $700 million without significant incremental CapEx.

Management has a strong track record of shareholder returns, repurchasing nearly 60% of shares since the 2013 spin-off from Murphy Oil, and is likely to accelerate buybacks if the stock remains undervalued at <10x EBITDA. Potential catalysts include decreased fuel efficiency regulation and continued share repurchases. Overall, MUSA offers a compelling risk/reward profile, supported by structurally higher fuel margins, strategic store positioning, resilient cash flows, and the potential for meaningful shareholder returns, making it an attractive play amid ongoing EV adoption uncertainty and long-term fuel demand stability.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (CASY) by Two Natural Capital in May 2025, which highlighted its dominance in rural markets, high-margin food offerings, and strategic acquisitions. The stock has appreciated 21.64% since coverage as the thesis played out. The thesis still stands, while NZ shares a similar view but emphasizes Murphy USA’s fuel margins, Walmart-adjacent locations, and potential share buybacks.

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Disclosure: None.