Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Ebrahim Poonawala: Got it. And I guess just a separate question around market activity obviously highly uncertain how investment banking activity shakes out. But if the Fed were to power and the central banks have done with the majority of the rate hikes, is that enough to drive a rebound in M&A, ECM, DCM? Or do we need a lot more in terms of just confidence returning to the market before we see IB activity picking up? Like what are you hearing for the clients?

Sharon Yeshaya: Sure. Why don’t I start and if James has anything to add? I basically say that from — if we think about the Investment Banking pipeline, the pipeline itself isn’t what’s changed. What’s changed is that movement from the pipeline to realize. And when we think about what will cause that, that policy pivot, a peak in inflation, something that allows the CEOs that are actually having those conversations in boardrooms to have more confidence both with their own economic outlook and — or excuse me, our own company outlook, the economic outlook that hinges on and then also just price clarity valuation certainty. Those are the things that as you think through it, we would expect to see move from the pipeline stage into the realized and announced stage. So the macro environment that you laid out where there is more clarity on the economy and then also a reduction in volatility should help that move forward.

James Gorman: Yes, I would say I think Sharon stayed right. And I am highly confident that when the Fed pauses, deal activity and underwriting activity will go up. I would bet the year on that, in fact. CEO’s job is to drive growth in their businesses, and they do that two ways, organic and inorganic. And I’ve been doing this a long time, and I’ve done both. And the only tricky part about inorganic once you’ve got your strategy set is timing. And sometimes, you’ve got to ignore timing, but if the market is really volatile, it behooves CEOs, particularly those relatively early in their careers to be a little cautious, and that’s what we’re seeing. That will change.

Operator: We’ll go next to Brennan Hawken with UBS.

Brennan Hawken: And just like to wish Jon Pruzan best of luck, looking forward to watching his next chapter play out. So Sharon, would love to double click on your expectations for NII. I hear you that it’s sort of based on the forward curve playing out, and encouraging certainly to hear it’s not peaked. But could you maybe give a little bit more color around expectations beyond forward curve? What do you assume for deposit dynamics? Do you think that the decline in sweep balances will continue to decline? What’s underlying that? Thanks.

Sharon Yeshaya: Sure. So, let’s take a step back and just say, why did we outperform in the fourth quarter, Brennan? And if you think about that, we obviously — when we look at the liability side, we outperformed there, and we performed on the asset side. So if we unpack a little bit of the liability side, I take it into two pieces. As you highlighted, it’s obviously about the deposit mix and also about pricing. So what we’ve seen in the deposit mix is that we have seen a moderation in the pace of outflows of those CDPs. Obviously, what — where we will go from here, we’ll need that to play out. But that is something that we take out into account when we think about the first quarter guidance. The second point is, obviously, on the actual liability pricing, we did see an outperformance of that pricing.

And when we exit the first quarter, we take that in — exit, excuse me, the fourth quarter and take that into the first quarter, that’s a benefit as well. So, the Fed hiking 125 basis points over the fourth quarter and then being able to have disciplined pricing over the fourth quarter will serve us well in the first.

Brennan Hawken: Okay. Thanks for that. And then certainly different question. Wealth Management, if we look at the client asset trends, they were barely up quarter-over-quarter. Basically, total client assets in wealth were up about the equivalent of the net new assets and can clearly see that self-directed and workplace were a little weak, probably because their exposure — more exposure to the Qs and the more growthy stocks. Was — but I would think, given what we saw in the markets that there’d be a bit more of a tailwind to client assets. Was there anything unusual that was happening there?

Sharon Yeshaya: No. Actually and what you highlighted is broadly correct in terms of where you see the broader exposure, the underlying exposure of those different channels. So, it’s just a function of the assets that you actually see as well as the mix of the underlying assets based on the channel.

Operator: We’ll go next to Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

Steven Chubak: So wanted to dig in a little bit further, Sharon, as it relates to Brennan’s question on NII. The two pieces I want to understand a little bit better is, one, what are you assuming for SBL growth in the coming year or even loan growth broadly across the wealth complex? And secondly, you saw really nice deposit growth in the fourth quarter. I wanted to understand how much of that is a function of tax loss harvesting that you expect to be redeployed? Or do you think any of that deposit growth is actually going to prove to be a bit stickier?