MongoDB, Inc. (MDB): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on MongoDB, Inc. on Nikhs’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MDB. MongoDB, Inc.’s share was trading at $374.02 as of January 29th. MDB’s forward P/E was 66.23 according to Yahoo Finance.

MongoDB, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides general purpose database platform worldwide. MDB is at a pivotal inflection point, positioned as a potential winner in AI-driven cloud modernization. Q3 results highlighted Atlas revenue growth accelerating to 30% YoY, with operating margins reaching 20%, signaling early evidence that AI is pulling forward enterprise cloud migrations rather than waiting for AI workloads to generate direct revenue. This feedback loop suggests enterprises are modernizing faster to enable AI adoption, validating the bull thesis that MongoDB could become the default stack for AI applications.

However, enterprise direct sales customers declined 5% YoY, indicating funnel pressure and potential mindshare loss despite growth in high-value accounts, raising questions about the sustainability of the feedback loop. The competitive outcome is binary: MongoDB either becomes the standard for AI-enabled databases or faces market fragmentation from Postgres, specialist vector databases, and hyperscaler offerings. With the stock at $406, the market prices roughly a 40% probability of the bull case, reflecting the high-stakes, winner-take-most dynamic.

Key signals over the next 12–18 months, including stabilization or growth in direct sales customers, sustained Atlas growth above 28%, and gross margins above 73%, could tilt the probability toward a bullish outcome. Conversely, accelerating enterprise customer decline, continued immaterial AI revenue, or hyperscaler encroachment would support the bear case.

Investors are effectively betting on the feedback loop model, MDB’s product edge, and CEO CJ Desai’s ability to stabilize the enterprise funnel. While Q3 proved that MongoDB can still deliver growth numbers worthy of a compounder, the stock price fully assumes a favorable resolution of these dynamics, making it a high-conviction, high-variance investment rather than a margin-of-safety play.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) by TechFundies in March 2025, which highlighted Atlas driving subscription growth, improving customer metrics, and upside potential despite margin pressures. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 90.70% since our coverage. This is because the thesis partially played out. Nikhs shares a similar bullish view but emphasizes AI accelerating modernization and the binary competitive outcome.

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Disclosure: None.