Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Mobileye Global Inc. on The Reservist’s Substack by Yehoshua Zlotogorski. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MBLY. Mobileye Global Inc.’s share was trading at $13.93 as of August 1^st. MBLY’s  forward P/E was 39.22 according to Yahoo Finance.

Mobileye delivered a strong quarter in its legacy ADAS business, exceeding expectations on sales growth, free cash flow, and inventory management. However, this segment, while essential, faces structural challenges as global car sales remain cyclical and decline outside China, where Chinese OEMs largely avoid Mobileye. Surround ADAS, a step above basic systems, is now highly competitive, with rivals like Qualcomm, Aptiv, and LG, making market share retention uncertain.

The real growth narrative lies in advanced driving solutions—SuperVision (L2+), Chauffeur (L3), and Drive (L4)—which command higher ASPs and unique business models. While these platforms showcase technological leadership, adoption has been slower than expected. Despite bullish commentary on strong OEM interest and testing progress, Mobileye has yet to secure major new contracts for SuperVision or Chauffeur, with timelines slipping toward 2028 due to OEM decision delays and limited competitive urgency outside China.

Management acknowledged slow momentum in L2+ and L3, citing unclear OEM pricing strategies and lack of market pressure. The bright spot remains Drive, Mobileye’s L4 platform, which is scaling faster than anticipated with Volkswagen and could exceed 100,000 vehicles by decade’s end. The launch of the EyeQ6 chipset and continued execution on advanced programs reinforce Mobileye’s strong technology base, but without new wins, the near-term growth outlook remains uncertain. Mobileye is in a “show-me” phase, needing to demonstrate its ability to capture meaningful share in next-gen ADAS and automated driving markets before the narrative can shift decisively bullish.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Innoviz Technologies Ltd. by Danny Brody in January 2025, which highlighted the company’s turnaround potential and strong LiDAR prospects for autonomous vehicles. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 17% since our coverage as the thesis didn’t fully play out. The thesis still stands as LiDAR remains critical for AV growth. Yehoshua Zlotogorski shares a similar view but emphasizes Mobileye’s advanced ADAS and automated driving platforms

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Disclosure: None.