MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on MINISO Group Holding Limited on Grillo Insights’ Substack by  Eric García. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MNSO. MINISO Group Holding Limited’s share was trading at $18.89 as of January 29th. MNSO’s trailing P/E was 18.87 according to Yahoo Finance.

MINISO Group Holding Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the retail and wholesale of design-led lifestyle and pop toy products in Mainland China, the rest of Asia, North and Latin America, Europe, and internationally. MNSO has delivered a strong fiscal third quarter 2025 performance, surpassing 8,000 stores globally and generating revenue of RMB 5,796.6 million (USD 814.3 million), a 28.2% year-over-year increase that exceeded the company’s guidance.

The growth was driven by robust expansion in both Mainland China, which added 102 net stores and achieved high single-digit same-store sales growth, and overseas markets, which added 488 net stores, with North America contributing 127 net openings and GMV growth of 68.8%. TOP TOY, a high-growth segment, posted a remarkable 111.4% year-over-year revenue increase, marking its international expansion into Tokyo.

Operational discipline remains evident, with gross margins holding at 44.7% and adjusted operating margin at 17.6%, reflecting investments in directly operated stores that are beginning to generate efficiencies as evidenced by revenue growth outpacing related expenses. Operating cash flow reached RMB 1,299.6 million for the quarter, well above net income, demonstrating high-quality, cash-backed earnings. For the first nine months, operating cash flow exceeded adjusted net income, and cash reserves of RMB 7,766.2 million (USD 1,090.9 million) provide a strong base for continued expansion.

The company’s strategic transition from a predominantly franchised model to a balanced model with direct operation, geographic diversification, and an IP-driven approach positions it for sustainable growth. Margin compression, while present, is improving sequentially, indicating investments are beginning to scale efficiently.

The trajectory of same-store sales, particularly in China and strategic overseas markets, alongside TOP TOY’s exceptional performance, underscores the company’s operational momentum and the potential for continued profitability as the global footprint expands. With robust cash generation, strategic optionality, and international growth accelerating, MINISO demonstrates a compelling growth profile supported by operational and financial strength.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) by Acid Investments in March 2025, which highlighted the divestiture of Family Dollar, DLTR’s superior margin profile, faster same-store sales growth, and expansion potential relative to Dollar General. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 69.49% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out as the market recognized DLTR’s core business strength. Eric García shares a similar bullish perspective but emphasizes MINISO’s global store expansion, robust cash generation, and the operational momentum of its high-growth TOP TOY segment.

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Disclosure: None.