Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Millicom International Cellular S.A. on alwaysinvert investing’s Substack by alwaysinvert. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TIGO. Millicom International Cellular S.A.’s share was trading at $47.81 as of August 25^th. TIGO’s trailing and forward P/E were 8.47 and 16.00 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

TIGO has presented a uniquely asymmetric investment opportunity since 2019, though the journey has been volatile. The investor exited in 2021 prior to the minority buyout in Guatemala, anticipating that the rights offering financing could suppress stock performance. Indeed, macroeconomic shocks including the Ukraine war and inflation pressures led to a weak post-deal performance. However, the 2023 leak of a potential takeover revealed the embedded value of TIGO’s infrastructure and consolidation potential, prompting a decisive re-entry.

Despite continued stock weakness through 2023, the investor recognized the long-term upside from cost-saving initiatives and strategic moves by Iliad’s leadership, including founder Xavier Niel’s track record of successful turnarounds and acquisitions. The company’s operational narrative has been progressively reinforced by evidence of strategic depth and execution, from European telecom turnarounds to regional consolidation in Latin America. Early skepticism from other investors was gradually replaced by recognition as key analysts, such as Richard Bråse in Sweden, highlighted TIGO’s transformation.

The U.S.-listed stock still faces knowledge gaps among American investors, whose markets are structurally distinct, creating further mispricing opportunities. Meanwhile, cash flow is being materially enhanced through regular dividends and extraordinary proceeds from tower sales, providing both income and capital for disciplined acquisitions, which are expected to compound growth and create further value.

Looking ahead, TIGO is positioned to benefit from continued consolidation in Colombia and other Latin American markets, leveraging Iliad’s operating model, cost discipline, and financial reputation. The combination of high dividend yield, strategic acquisitions, and operational improvements offers significant upside, while downside risk remains mitigated. The experience highlights both the complexity and the asymmetry of the opportunity, with the investment thesis now entering a critical “second half” where execution and market recognition are likely to unlock substantial value for shareholders.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) by jefke in November 2024, which highlighted the tower sale-leaseback, immediate cash flow benefits, and Xavier Niel’s strategic oversight. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately 87% since our coverage as the thesis played out through value realization and strengthened cash flows. alwaysinvert shares a similar perspective but emphasizes the asymmetric opportunity and Iliad’s transformative impact.

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Disclosure: None.