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Microsoft (MSFT) Reassessing $13 Billion OpenAI Partnership Amid AI Power Shifts

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) is one of the top 10 picks from Harvard University’s stock portfolio. The Harvard Management Co.’s portfolio composition shows that the managers substantially increased their position in Microsoft in Q1. Around 366,700 shares were added in Q1 2025, which increased the position by approximately 8x, giving it a 14% weight.

According to a June 19 report from the Financial Times, Microsoft and OpenAI are in the middle of complex negotiations to rework the terms of their long-standing partnership. A key point in the discussions is OpenAI’s proposal to convert from a non-profit model into a fully for-profit entity—a move that would require Microsoft’s consent and could shift the balance of control and economics in the relationship.

The discussions have become increasingly difficult, with Microsoft reportedly open to walking away if no agreement is reached. At issue is the size of Microsoft’s stake in a restructured OpenAI, given its more than $13 billion investment to date. If no new terms are agreed upon, Microsoft could continue operating under its current agreement, which guarantees access to OpenAI’s models and a 20% share of related revenues through 2030.

Other terms are also under review. Microsoft currently holds exclusive rights to distribute OpenAI’s products through Azure and also has rights to early access to the company’s infrastructure and models. With growing competition in the AI space, Microsoft is seeking to maintain these advantages, while OpenAI is under pressure to finalize its restructuring plan to meet investor conditions from its recent funding rounds.

Despite issuing a joint statement underscoring a positive working relationship, sources close to the matter suggest Microsoft is not in a hurry to revise a deal that already works in its favor. Meanwhile, OpenAI is working against a year-end deadline to secure approvals and retain investor commitments, including from SoftBank.

Microsoft recently made xAI’s Grok available to its Azure customers. This kind of moves not only broaden its AI portfolio, but also suggest that the company is positioning itself to rely less heavily on OpenAI if necessary. The outcome of these talks may have wider implications for how major tech players approach access to foundational AI models going forward.

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) develops and markets software, hardware, and cloud services. Its flagship products include the Windows operating system, the Microsoft Office suite, and the Azure cloud platform. Additionally, Microsoft owns LinkedIn, GitHub, and Xbox, extending its influence across various industries.

While we acknowledge the potential of MSFT as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you’re looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Best Tech Stocks to Buy According to Billionaires.

Disclosure: None.

The $250 Trillion AI Hype is Real. A few years from now, you’ll probably wish you’d bought this stock.

Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

When Jeff Bezos said that one breakthrough technology would shape Amazon’s destiny, even Wall Street’s biggest analysts were caught off guard.

Fast forward a year and Amazon’s new CEO Andy Jassy described generative AI as a “once-in-a-lifetime” technology that is already being used across Amazon to reinvent customer experiences.

At the 8th Future Investment Initiative conference, Elon Musk predicted that by 2040 there would be at least 10 billion humanoid robots, with each priced between $20,000 and $25,000.

Do the math. According to Musk, this technology could be worth $250 trillion by 2040.

Put another way, that’s roughly equal to:

  • 175 Teslas
  • 107 Amazons
  • 140 Metas
  • 84 Googles
  • 65 Microsofts
  • And 55 Nvidias

And here’s the wild part — this $250 trillion wave isn’t tied to one company, but to an entire ecosystem of AI innovators set to reshape the global economy.

It’s a leap so massive, it could reshape how businesses, governments, and consumers operate worldwide.

Even if that $250 trillion figure sounds ambitious, major firms like PwC and McKinsey still see AI unlocking multi-trillion-dollar potential.

How could anything be worth that much?

The answer lies in a breakthrough so powerful it’s redefining how humanity works, learns, and creates.

And this breakthrough has already set off a frenzy among hedge funds and Wall Street’s top investors.

What most investors don’t realize is that one under-owned company holds the key to this $250 trillion revolution.

In fact, Verge argues this company’s supercheap AI technology should concern rivals.

Before I reveal the details, let’s talk about how some of the richest people on the planet are positioning themselves.

  • Bill Gates sees artificial intelligence as the “biggest technological advance in my lifetime,” more transformative than the internet or personal computer, capable of improving healthcare, education, and addressing climate change.
  • Larry Ellison — through Oracle, is spending billions on Nvidia chips and partnering with Cohere to embed generative AI across Oracle’s cloud and apps.
  • Warren Buffett — not known for tech hype — says this breakthrough could have a ‘hugely beneficial social impact.

When billionaires from Silicon Valley to Wall Street line up behind the same idea — you know it’s worth paying attention to.

Even as we admire what Tesla, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft have built, we believe an even greater opportunity lies elsewhere…

But the real story isn’t Nvidia — it’s a much smaller company quietly improving the critical technology that makes this entire revolution possible.

And judging by what I’m hearing from both Silicon Valley insiders and Wall Street veterans…

This prediction might not be bold at all:

A few years from now, you’ll wish you’d owned this stock.

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Wall Street calls this $3 stock a “Melting Ice Cube.” They said the same thing about BTI before it returned 90%.

Dr. Inan Dogan

Dr. Ian Dogan

Co-Founder and Research Director at Insider Monkey

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We alerted our subscribers, and BTI returned 90% in just 16 months.

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Today, we have identified a nearly identical pattern in a digital-first giant trading at $3.

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