MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE:MTG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Mihir Bhatia: Okay. And then just maybe turning to credit for a second. Look, it’s clearly a reasonably favorable backdrop, right, for credit. But as you sit there and look at your results, are there any potholes that you’re looking out at? Anything in particular you’re worried about? I guess I’m trying to understand just from a credit perspective, what are some of the metrics or some of the potential issues that are upcoming that you maybe are paying a little bit more attention to that could cause credit hiccups for you all?

Tim Mattke: Yeah. I mean it’s — when we have negative loss incurred per period, I think we view that as not sustainable. I think we’ve been in the phenomenal credit environment. The things we watch are what a lot of people watch, right, unemployment what’s happening there. We do think that the values of housing is an important characteristic whether we’ll have losses or not. So we’ve been very, very happy with how resilient home prices have been over the last nine to 12 months. So I think we’re watching that, obviously watch for any deterioration you can see in other credit lines as well. But a lot of times, those don’t correlate exactly to what we see in mortgage credit, especially if home prices are solid. The reality is the underwriting and the credit box for mortgage and especially the area that we operate in has been phenomenal for over a decade now.

And so while we’ll be careful to say that it’s tough to see that how well it’s performed will continue because it’s just been phenomenal. It is something that feels inherently different than it would have 15 years ago as a comparison. So feel really optimistic about that.

Mihir Bhatia: Okay. And on that last point, this is my last question. I’ll hop back in queue after, but like in terms of the underwriting environment, given the high mortgage rates have been, I guess, almost a year now that originators have been working with it, are you seeing any move by originators, any appetite to expand the credit box, maybe giving — pushing you on, hey, maybe we want to do some nonagency lower credit [deal in] (ph) non-agency, I mean, like not jumbo? Anything you’re seeing, any pressure, anything from originators, anyone in the ecosystem looking to expand that credit box?

Tim Mattke: Yeah. No, that’s a good question. I think from how broad MI fees, I mean I think you always look for lenders who are looking to do things that are the right answer that they can find other borrowers that can make eligible that they want to do that, they still have strong credit profile, and we have those conversations every day with our customers. But I think what you are hinting at is some — a broader sort of view of let’s expand the box, let’s figure out ways to get more loans. It’s really a supply issue as much as it is a demand issue at this point. So qualifying more borrowers, I don’t think really helps. I think there’s plenty of qualified borrowers at this point, although we can always help those around the margins for sure, but it’s really a supply issue out there.

And I think the interest rate lock-in effect is real. Although I think they will dissipate over time as people get more comfortable and earn their house longer, and look to move up to their second home as opposed to their starter home.

Mihir Bhatia: Okay. Thank you so much.

Tim Mattke: Sure.

Operator: Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Geoffrey Dunn of Dowling & Partners. Your line is now open.

Geoffrey Dunn: Thank you. Good morning guys.

Tim Mattke: Good morning.

Geoffrey Dunn: With respect to new provisioning and particularly the severity assumption, is it fair to assume that there’s kind of pressure on that number for the foreseeable future as the ’21 through ’23 book season? Or is there something in your approach that could soften that?