Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ:MEOH) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Joel Jackson: And just finally, if I could be greedy here. Can you tell me at G3, did commissioning start in January, as part of that question. How many months did it take from first commissioning to first production at both G1 and G2 and would a similar timeline makes sense for G3?

Rich Sumner: Well, I guess it depends on your definition of commissioning. When we’re commissioning a plant, we — what we’re doing is, as the different systems and the plant are complete. We’re handing it over to the commissioning team. So as of right now, the power supply system is being commissioned and handover to the team, that will continue to handover different parts of the plant as they become available. So that — all that is built into our timelines when we say production in the fourth quarter and that we think once, we actually get tempting to start up the plant, it’s a matter of weeks not months, because of all that pre-work done by the commissioning team.

Joel Jackson: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Ben Isaacson: Thank you very much and good morning everyone. Rich, I just want trying to figure out 2023 in terms of demand. There is a big story about China starting to reopen this year and the U.S. and the EU perhaps going into recession. And you mentioned that we had about 88 million tons of demand in ’22. Can you talk about where incremental demand comes from in ’23 is it going higher, is it going lower? And what about incremental production? So you said that outside of China, G3 is the only asset coming online, but what’s happening in China, how much new production or change in production do you expect to see?

Rich Sumner: Sure. So the demand — thanks Ben, the demand question is kind of maybe a large one. I’ll try to tackle that one first. So we break down demand, we break it into both, I guess, segments as well as regions. Traditional chemical applications at 50% of demand. The MTO is 15% to %20 and then other energy applications is 30% to 35%. A significant portion of that demand overall is in China, so 60% of overall demand is in China, and another 10% to 15% is in other Asian countries. So with a strong linkage to China. So when we look at it — we’re looking at it both regionally and also by derivative, where demand we see growing, all applications in China and Asia could be help and supported with the reopening of China. We’re looking at forecast day that are predicting 4% to 5% or above growth rates in China on reopening.

We’re going to have to wait and see. We didn’t see that demand ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year and we’re — but we are seeing a lot of activity in that country coming out. So we’re going to be cautiously optimistic there on really all applications. For MTO when we — what we saw towards the end of last year is 15% decline in MTO demand. It was really on the back of two large scale plants. One of which has already restarted and we know one plant is down that consumes over 2 million tons. We think the reason for that continuing to be down as they actually had refinery expansion and they’re commissioning naphtha cracker ahead of the derivative downstream being commissioned and we believe that MTO, they have plans to restart MTO, once it’s all commission.