Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Matt Murphy: Yes. Sorry, yes, the accelerator. For sure. The way we think about it is the — that business year-over-year should grow in line with accelerator growth — accelerator unit growth. We view it as very correlated. Obviously, there’s some timing issues in terms of supply chain and things like that. But that’s a simple way to think about it, and everyone’s got a little bit of a different model at this point about what that number is, but our view is we’re highly correlated to accelerator shipments, in our optics business.

Operator: The next question will come from Gary Mobley with Wells Fargo.

Gary Mobley: As a way to think about the win or hit rate for your custom ASIC business when engaging with prospective customers in the future, how should we think about the increasing competitive environment from the Arm ecosystem, Arm specifically with more versions than Neoverse, it’s total design ecosystem, it’s compute subsystems and as well all the ASIC design community. First of all, how do you feel about Arm essentially becoming more of a competitor? And then as well, how do you think about the way in which you’ll compete against that and succeed?

Matt Murphy: Look, I think there’s a in this market today, there’s obviously a lot of excitement because of the opportunity in front of us. I mean the way that we’re working is there’s a number of companies that are our partners, solution providers, et cetera that may or may have their own offering or not, whether it gets taken up or not as we’ll have to see. Where we come together really is we pull it all together. We’re able to actually deliver with Marvell intellectual property, design methodology and techniques, our IP, and our know-how pulled together with our customers RTL and IP and partners, the total solution, which means we actually lay the chip out. We package it up. we manufacture it in high volume. We QA it, we test it, we yield it, we drive reliability, we drive cost improvement, and we drive it through the cycle.

And that is a very different business model than providing a piece that goes in. And so Arm has been our partner for a long time. We use them in our products kind of all over the place. And as they evolve and others evolve, we’ll figure that out too. But in the end, it comes down to, we believe, for these large volume mission-critical big compute silicon chips it’s going to require somebody like a Marvell with the manufacturing scale, the design techniques and know-how to really execute it. And so we haven’t seen any change there. And in fact, I think at the sort of 3-nanometer node we’re at and beyond, it’s going to be even more critical to have a partner who’s got your back, who can help you get to production quickly and spin derivatives quickly, which is now increasingly looking like what’s going to be needed, more SKUs, higher — faster beat rate in terms of when products are released and then obviously ramping them very hard and quickly given the competitive environment.

Operator: The next question will come from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

Harlan Sur: Matt, you mentioned the initial shipments of your AI ASIC program. Can you just clarify because I know last you updated us, these programs were in qualification. So have you guys passed qual on both these programs? And is it sort of the initial start of the full production ramp? Or maybe you’re still in qual, but you’ve got enough line of sight to passing the qual just given you’re at the tail end of this process? And maybe more importantly, have you guys secured the follow-on AI programs for these two initial projects?

Matt Murphy: So yes, we are in the initial start of the production ramp on both products. And then as far as the follow-on, like I said, the opportunity funnel we see across all of the various opportunities right now is significant, and we’re involved in, we believe, we think, every single one of them. So yes, and there’ll be more to come sort of at our AI Day, but I would just say our 3-nanometer funnel and our 3-nanometer hit rate and design win rate is very encouraging and it really gives us this tremendous confidence in where this business is headed. It also has a side benefit by driving this advanced technology for the custom ASIC side, is it’s pulling along the technology development that benefits all the other businesses in Marvell, like our high-performance switching, our DSP for optics, et cetera.

So there’s actually kind of a virtuous cycle happening where being at that bleeding edge is now we’re able to show our other solutions that interoperate with this custom silicon, really a best-in-class roadmap there. But more on the overall strategy and opportunity size at the AI though. [indiscernible].

Operator: Your next question will come from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

Tore Svanberg: Matt, I had a question on the 800-gig upgrade cycle. So you mentioned that ramping, but you also mentioned 1.6 Terabit ramping later this year. My understanding is that we’re still in the early stages of the 800 gig. And I’m just wondering if you expect a more broad-based 800-gig upgrade cycle before 1.6T really starts to take off? Or will we potentially see kind of both ramping at the same time?

Matt Murphy: Yes, I think there’s three different pieces we should talk about. So the first is 1.6T. I would just call that early shipments, first volumes type of thing in the second half, end of the year and then more next year. And that’s really, I’d call the early adoption of that technology. But it’s very promising because that’s obviously what’s going to follow. The 800 gig for AI has still got tons of legs, right? And it’s going to be very, very strong this year, very, very strong next year. And then there’ll be some transition over time. And then I think what you’re also indicating is, at some point, you’re going to see an 800-gig transition on traditional cloud infrastructure from either 200-gig or 400-gig to 800-gig and that is also true in something we’re planning for.