Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (NYSE:MLM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 4 of 12

The only places that we’re seeing some modest movement, not a big surprise is in really parts of the Central United States. At the same time, it’s very early there in the season, but even if we look in cement. It’s interesting. When I look at our strategic cement business, again, very focused on Dallas-Fort Worth, very focused on Austin and San Antonio. Backlogs are really quite healthy. And importantly, as we look at our downstream businesses, primarily in Texas, we’re seeing ready mixed backlogs, very much in line with prior year and keep in mind, to your point, a lot of what we think is going to happen relative to nonresidential is actually ahead of us on these large energy and related projects. So we think those numbers are likely to build during the course of the year.

I think it’s always important to remember that as we look at these customer backlogs, particularly this time of year, it only represents I want to say 25% to 35% of annual aggregates in cement shipments. So it’s not something that’s, no pun intended, chiseled in stone, but nonetheless, it’s actually a very good indicator of where we think the year is going, And I think your question really ties back into a degree to what Trey asked, when we’re looking at our key states, we’re looking at a summary. We’re looking at all the end uses. As we’re looking at that and then going, is the green, is the yellow, is the red? The vast majority of our key states, you’re going to see green indicators on those. So, Stanley. I hope that’s helpful.

Stanley Elliott: It sure is. Thanks so much for the color and best of luck.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Your line is now open.

Anthony Pettinari: Good morning. Hi Ward or Jim, understanding you don’t give quarterly guidance, is there a way to think about how the cadence of earnings or volumes might flow over the four quarters of the year? I’m just thinking the catch-up on price cost and IIJA maybe taking some time to get those dollars spent. Is it accurate to think earnings could be more second-half weighted relative to previous years or is there any anyway we can think about that?

Ward Nye: Yes, I’m going to ask Jim to go through in just a second, and give you a little bit more granularity on it. I mean, several things that you know foundationally. Number one, the two slowest quarters end up being Q1 and Q4. As we think about Q4 and the year that we just lapped, obviously, volumes were down in Q4 at 12% and margin expanded. So, oddly enough, as you think about next year, one of the easier comps we’re going to have will likely be later in the year. At the same time, if you think about the way some of this may flow through having accelerated pricing towards the beginning of the year, it might make Q1 look a little bit different, but I will turn it over to Jim to talk a little bit about the rhythm and cadence that we typically see on volumes. Jim?

Jim Nickolas: Yes. So thinking about a three-year average, if you look-back three years and then comparing that to 2023, what we’re expecting, Q1 will be better in 2023 versus the three-year average and then I’d say it’s more leveling out at that point. So Q2 maybe a little bit worse than prior Q2s, but still better than prior year in terms of absolute performance. And then, back half should be equal to what we’ve seen in prior three years or so on average. So Q1 disproportionately better than historical experience and then Q2 a little worse and in the back half pretty similar.

Ward Nye: And again, these are just percentage basis that we’re talking about.

Jim Nickolas: Right, Every quarter to be clear will be better than the prior year quarter on an absolute basis.

Page 4 of 12