Markel Corporation (NYSE:MKL) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

We looked at practice exposures versus project exposures. We looked at wording, claims handling practices, various assumptions we’re making. So, all that to give you a sense of the depth and the robustness of the review that we had. Undoubtedly, the rising level of cost to settle and adjust claims is linked to inflation in all exports. So we’re seeing that. But there are other aspects that give us that led to some of the reserve adjustments we made in the fourth quarter, but also, I think, importantly, lead us to have a lot more confidence that we understand the recent experience and that we’re in a position now to put that adverse loss experience and trend behind us as we move forward.

Tom Gayner: And let me jump in. This is Tom. And Mark, and this is really for everybody. I want to make sure we’re not driving by looking at the hood ornament. And we keep our eyes on the horizon a bit here. So obviously, we’re talking a lot about the insurance results. This is a Markel Group conference call. It’s Martel Group that is – what you own shares in the book value per share, which, again, is dinged by amortization, and it’s dinged by the unrealized losses in the bond portfolio, both of which I would argue were not real. It was up 17% last year. It’s up 11% over the last 5 years. And the actions that I think if our roles were reversed and you were managing this business, where you would be directing capital when we have directed capital towards investments that show the fruits of that.

We have directed capital towards ventures, which show the fruits of that. We have paired and pruned inside the insurance engine. And I think you will see the fruits of that in the fullness of time. And we are dividing that pie by fewer shares. So, that’s – remain somewhat aware of the horizon as well as the hood ornament.

Mark Hughes: Appreciate that. Thank you.

Operator: We will take our next question from Andrew Andersen at Jefferies.

Andrew Andersen: Good morning. Could you provide a bit more color on to what loss trend you are looking to in some of these casualty lines? And if that’s going to be higher in 2024 versus how 2023 shaked-out? I am just trying to think about the confidence in the more recent accident years, which also faced some pressure in the opportunity for growth here.

Jeremy Noble: Sure. So, I mean as far as sort of trend assumptions heading into ‘24, I think if anything, trend either holds up or moderate slightly, relative to ‘23 assumptions. We have a very broad portfolio. We are 100 major product lines. We write lots of different segments and classes all across the globe. So, there is no sort of simple way to break through the trend assumptions down. But in – as you would expect in longer tail cash-driven oriented lines, 5%, 6% to 8% is not an uncommon trend assumption. And in each of the cases, we look at our portfolios with regards to rate adequacy. We look at the pricing that we are obtaining relative to that trend. And we all level that into our loss selections.

Andrew Andersen: Okay. And just backing up on the reserves, you had a charge fourth quarter of last year, movement on nine months ‘23, another charge fourth quarter of this year. Has the team evaluated doing an LPT in the past to create some finality to this?

Jeremy Noble: We have not done anything with regards to LPT or adverse development covers, and I won’t sort of comment more broadly than that.

Andrew Andersen: Okay. And maybe a few more questions here. Can you just – you mentioned litigation finance and casualty lines and how it’s affected the loss trends where you raised your reserves. You have did kind of just mention perhaps trend moderates slightly in ‘24, but are you kind of thinking of the litigation finance environment slows down in the coming years, or do you see that accelerating?

Jeremy Noble: Generally speaking, I think a lot of what we have been talking about in our challenge with regards to recent social inflation trends. So, the cost to adjust and settle claims, prevalence of litigation funding, the aggressiveness of the plaintiffs for the sentiment of juries, all those sort of things, I don’t necessarily have a reason to believe that, that abates anytime in the near-term. So, what we have to do is appropriately price our portfolio and ensure that we have got enough diversification and resiliency in the portfolios to stay a step ahead. And that’s part of what mentioning the fact that we have taken a more cautious view on the more recent years to build in to attempt to build in a greater margin of safety around those concerns in line with our core philosophy of being more likely redundant than deficient. So, we will see how that plays out. But we have to be cautious in the sort of claims and litigation environment.

Andrew Andersen: Okay. And maybe what’s a good way to think about the reserves and the charges over the last couple of years. Has this – the bulk of this been on discontinued business for the Insurance segment, or is it kind of a mix of continuing, but we are making changes to attachments, pricing, etcetera?

Jeremy Noble: It’s a mix. So, we had an example within reinsurance that Brian alluded to, it’s associated with public entity business that we wrote in 2019 and prior that we discontinued at that time. We have aspects of our portfolio that are ongoing that we are trimming and rehabbing and trying to get right. We have got aspects within the portfolio that we are exiting either classes or sub-segments. So, I mean it’s a bit of everything across the portfolio.

Andrew Andersen: Thank you.

Operator: We will move next to Scott Heleniak at RBC.

Scott Heleniak: Yes. Good morning. Just to follow-up a little bit on that – on some of the classes you have exited so far. I am just curious how much of that you think you will be able to fix with rate – with higher rates and improving terms and conditions versus actually exiting or reducing exposure a lot. I don’t know if you can get any color or any sense on that, just charging higher rates and changing terms and conditions versus having to exit or pair [ph] significantly?

Jeremy Noble: Yes. I mean I can’t put any specifics or quantification around that. I gave you an example earlier to say, suggest in the fourth quarter and some of the lines at a larger sort of product line level that we shed over $100 million of premium in those lines that were more challenged where we were concerned about rate adequacy. And obviously, we grew more than that across everything else in the portfolio. We will continue to do that. So, we are focused within every facet of our insurance operations of ensuring that we are – have a healthy portfolio. That it’s rate adequate and that we are earning appropriate returns on capital. And I will report to you each and every 90 days of how we are making progress in that space. But I can’t sort of simplistically say, this is how it will break down. We are working hard.

Scott Heleniak: That’s fair. And then on the insurance side, you called out personal lines and property being a growth area. Can you talk about the kind of what the growth rates there were last couple of quarters and particularly Q4. And whether is that – are you running that business mostly E&S admitted where you are seeing the opportunity, or is it a mix?