Maplebear Inc. (CART): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Maplebear Inc. on Compounding Your Wealth’s Substack by Sergey. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CART. Maplebear Inc.’s share was trading at $36.08 as of February 3rd. CART’s trailing and forward P/E were 20.77 and 15.70 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, engages in the provision of online grocery shopping services to households in North America. CART delivered a strong Q3 2025, demonstrating resilient online grocery demand while signaling a gradual shift in its growth drivers and disciplined margin management. Gross transaction value (GTV) rose 10% year over year to $9.17 billion, supported by 83.4 million orders, up 14%, reflecting robust order volume despite a 4% decline in average order value due to a higher mix of restaurant orders and the $10 minimum basket for Instacart+ members.

Transaction revenue grew 10%, remaining steady at 7.3% of GTV, while advertising and other revenue also rose 10%, accounting for 2.9% of GTV, although growth was limited by softer spending from large CPG brands.

 Profitability improved alongside operational efficiency, with GAAP net income increasing 22% to $144 million and adjusted EBITDA rising 22% to $278 million, driven by higher order density, improved batching, and lower fulfillment costs per order. Operating cash flow climbed $102 million year over year to $287 million, with cash balances around $1.9 billion. Management further demonstrated confidence in cash flow durability by expanding share repurchase authorization by $1.5 billion.

Instacart’s hybrid model as both a consumer marketplace and enterprise technology partner underpins its competitive moat, with leadership in large grocery baskets above $75, representing roughly 75% of the online market, and enterprise technology powering 350+ retailer storefronts and 240+ partner sites through Carrot Ads.

While near-term challenges include advertising softness, potential regulatory risk, and affordability-driven churn, the company’s focus on expanding enterprise adoption, scaling retail media toward a 4–5% ad take rate, and sustaining gradual margin expansion into 2026 positions it as a compelling opportunity for investors seeking steady growth, improving profitability, and strategic optionality.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Maplebear Inc. (CART) by Chit Chat Stocks in May 2025, which highlighted CART’s leading U.S. grocery delivery position, asset-light model, growing advertising revenue, and buybacks. CART’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 23.26% since our coverage. Sergey shares a similar view but emphasizes Q3 2025 performance, profitability, and enterprise technology expansion.

Maplebear Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 60 hedge fund portfolios held CART at the end of the third quarter which was 64 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of CART as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than CART and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.