ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE:MAN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

We’ll continue to update that. We’ll watch that when the preliminary budget comes out in the fall, and certainly in the fourth quarter we’ll have greater certainty around that, but that would be very good if that got passed as intended.

Jeff Silber: Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from Manav Patnaik of Barclays. Your line is open.

Ronan Kennedy: Hi, good morning. This is actually Ronan Kennedy on for Manav. Thank you for taking my questions. Last quarter, if I’m not mistaken, the commentary was indicative of seeing solid demand, little to no signs of deterioration. While increasing risks and uncertainty were acknowledged, the commentary was indicative of that solid demand, but now it’s broader economic softening, lower demand for services in some, not all markets, the uncertain economic outlook. How did that happen? Can you assess what happened in the quarter versus your expectations, even from a timing standpoint and with regards to your visibility, and how we should expect first quarter and the remainder of the year to play out in consideration of that?

Jonas Prising: Sure Ronan, good morning. The risks and uncertainties we talked about in the prior call to some degree came to pass. For the first three quarters of the year, especially after the Ukraine war, we started to see Europe soften but the U.S. held on, and Q4 was really the time when we started to see the U.S. demand softening broadly across the brand, but clearly more pronounced for the Manpower brand, and that shouldn’t have come as much as a surprise. As you know, for the Manpower brand, PMI is a good indicator. Both across Europe during the year and in the U.S. at this time, PMIs are all below 50 and we really could see that softening demand occurring in the Manpower brand in particular. At this point, as Jack has just spoken about, it is clearly visible across all of our brands, but having said that, we see big differentiation between the softening, with Talent Solutions still leading the way in terms of growth of GP in the fourth quarter.

The same is true for Experis, holding up well, and really it’s the Manpower brand that we’re seeing having more of an impact due to the slowdown in industrial activity and across various sectors.

Jack McGinnis: Ronan, I would just add to that, I think when we released our third quarter results on October 20, we’d just had a couple weeks of activity in October at that point. I think if you look at some of the labor market data, particularly in the U.S., on what happened from October through December, you’ll see a significant trend change in terms of what was happening with temporary workers in November and December as they ended the quarter. Certainly in France as well, you would have seen the industry data there – step down in the month of November and December, and actually our business held up fairly well compared to that industry data that went negative year-over-year in November and December. But clearly the environment changed. When we went out on October 20, we did say that we anticipated a stable environment, to your point, and what happened in November and December actually moved away from that.

Ronan Kennedy: That’s very helpful, thank you. Then margins were touched on in response to Andrew’s question, but just for guidance for the first quarter overall, obviously it is a function of the top line and potential declines there. But what are the other puts and takes to the upside or downside to the margins as well, and then ultimately earnings?