Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

So, we had greater reliance on this one pad and that really made the difference. The pad has been online now since December and is actually performing better than our expectations. So, no issues around that. Will we be doing any more eight-well pads here anytime soon? We’re not planning on it. I was joking the other day and I said if we had a chainsaw and had an eight-well pad, we just cut it in half maybe. But I just — I don’t think so. We — this is sort of a more unique circumstance, nothing beyond that.

Leo Mariani: Okay. Thanks guys.

Operator: Your next question is from Geoff Jay with Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead.

Geoff Jay: Good morning guys.

Chris Stavros: Good morning Jeff.

Brian Corales: Hi Jeff.

Geoff Jay: So, just simply for me looking at Q4 D&C annualizing that it looks like a 10% reduction in your guide for 2023. Just wondering kind of what the sort of components of that are and really trying to get to sort of see where you see sort of the greatest I guess either sort of flattening or actually deflation in your service costs, where are you seeing pricing and where is it getting lose it?

Chris Stavros: Yes, what you’re seeing for fourth quarter and you’ll see it in the first quarter as well which we talked about and we talked about just in terms of the guidance, the capital that we’re forecasting or viewing right now is going to be more heavily weighted in the back end of last year and the front end of this year. And that’s really just the plan of our scheduling. And so it’s really somewhat front-end loaded this year and that you’ll see that develop and evolve in some of the volumes and production in the first half of the year. So, you’ll see some growth clearly stem from that. And then the capital will start to decline as we move into 2Q, 3Q, 4Q. So, it will come down a bit. So, annualizing either — frankly either one of those numbers is probably not the best way to sort of view the overall outcome for 2023.

As far as where the cost inflation is showing up or maybe not showing up or seeing some flattening out, you’re seeing some decline maybe or softening. Softening is probably a better way to put it, flattening in steel maybe some OCTG items, clearly fuel, maybe drilling fluids. That’s sort of what you’re seeing. I think rigs are still well-supported. But frankly given where we’ve come in terms of product prices here in the last three months to six months and especially around natural gas, I would think that there’s a bit of a disconnect in current costs for some services and materials relative to where we are in the cycle. This is as well as I do. This is sort of a lag event. And the folks are going to try to take it out of our highs as best they can and they’ll do that for a bit and then things will soften up I think.

Geoff Jay: Yes, that’s super helpful. And then thinking about the current pricing environment and it’s obviously a little soft. Will that have any impact on your ability to kind of get some of the bolt-on deals you guys may be looking at now or interested in going forward?

Chris Stavros: I don’t think so. I don’t see that at all. I’m not sure why it would. Nothing that I can see frankly.

Geoff Jay: All right. Well, thanks for that guys. Appreciate it.