Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (NYSE:MGY) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Chris Stavros: No, I wouldn’t say we’re that time it could be that we’re that smart around it. I mean, look, it’s sort of spread out through the year. I would tell you that there’s probably – for the remainder of the year, on average, you’re looking at capital of about $100 million a quarter. There might be a little bit of lumpiness, a little bit of lower capital in 2Q that might bump up again in 3Q, come down in 4Q, hard to really say, but it might be a little bit lumpy, but on average, about $100 million per quarter for the rest of the year.

Umang Choudhary: Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. And the next question will be from Geoff Jay of Daniel Energy Partners. Please go ahead.

Geoff Jay: So, hey, guys. If I can just beat the service dead horse a little longer. Just curious if you – if the script kind of held out here and was right, you have a six handle for the next remainder of this year and next year. How far down do you think service costs need to come in order for you to sort of, I guess, get back to the rate of activity you would kind of planned on at the beginning of the year?

Chris Stavros: Well, Geoff, I mean, we still haven’t – right now, all we’re clawing back is some of the stated increases going into 2023. And so this still is not reflective of some of the ramp up that you saw in 2022. And so you’re probably – and look, I’m a little bit sort of finger in the wind here. But my view is that another 15%, 20% may be down the path in order to get things better aligned.

Geoff Jay: Got it. Probably that makes sense. It’s always sort of an interesting calculus, right, because obviously, I think the service guys would say, hey, we just started to make money at some point last year. So trying to figure out where you thought the right balance was?

Chris Stavros: Well, we realize that, and that’s why we’ve tried to work collaboratively with the vendors and the service providers and say, look, if you want to keep your crews and your activity going, all we’re trying to do is work with you so we can continue that relative consistency and steadiness going through time here rather than creating a situation where they have to drop folks or drop activity themselves and sort of stall it out.

Geoff Jay: Cool. Well, that’s great color. I appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

Chris Stavros: Thanks, Geoff.

Operator: Thank you. This time next question will be from Paul Diamond of Citi. Please go ahead.

Paul Diamond: Hi, good morning all. Thanks for taking my call. I just wanted to touch base quickly. I know we had spoken about – or we see some volatility in pricing realizations as well. I just wanted to kind of get your take on how you see that progressing through the year given the current kind of dislocated or dislocating pricing?

Chris Stavros: Yes. Hey, Paul, I mean if we look at the oil price in general, we’ve guided $3 off MEH for several years, plus or minus $1 around that. There is a little volatility, but we still think that’s a good number long-term and to continue to use. Now gas has seen a lot more volatility, especially we sell most of our gas at Ship Channel. And as you know, with Freeport outage, there’s been some wider spreads that we’ve seen, not just Magnolia, but just Ship Channel compared to Henry Hub. And so I think those are the largest contributors. Oil, I think, will be relatively consistent, roughly about that $3 off of MEH, but Ship Channel, I mean it has narrowed, but it was stubbornly wide for several months.