Lumen Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:LUMN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

David Barden: Yes. Kate, the question was within the confines of the €“ I think, the fourth priority like radical simplification of the business, I think the streamlining of processes and that sort of thing, I think, is kind of one side of the interpretation of what that might look like. Another side might be further asset divestitures, other kinds of strategic types of things and stones that have not been turned over to-date? Thanks.

Kate Johnson: Yes. I mean the two sort of pieces of it, as I discussed, was going to be understanding how we could do fewer things better, I think, is what I said. And with this mindset around simplification of our product portfolio, we’ve had a proliferation of SKUs. And when you think about the proliferation of IT systems through all the mergers to support those SKUs, both sides of the equation, simplification of what we sell as well as how we sell it, that’s the winning formula. So, those were €“ that was the intention of our remarks. Regarding the overall strategy, I think if you keep coming back to our mission statement, to digitally connect people, data and applications quickly, securely and effortlessly, anything that we do will strategically map directly to that statement.

David Barden: Great. I understand. Thank you so much.

Mike McCormack: Thanks David. Next question please.

Operator: Our next question is from the line of Greg Williams with Cowen & Co. Please go ahead.

Greg Williams: Great. Thanks for taking my questions and echoing the congrats, Kate. My first question is just on what are the larger puts and takes on the range €“ $200 million range of your guidance that determines the low end and the high end? And then second question is just on the reduction of your Quantum Fiber forecast. I believe I heard it’s been a 500,000 enablement. What’s your comfort level on the fears of third-party overbuilders coming in as you are not building? Is that sort of contemplated in the fact that you have now reduced your overall build from $12 million down to $8 million to $10 million and those third-party overbuilders, it is just coming over build in that territory? Thanks.

Chris Stansbury: Hey Greg, it’s Chris. In terms of the guidance range, I would say that the pieces that I spend more time being concerned about are the things, frankly, that are beyond our control, things like the inflationary environment and just the broader macro. So, I would say that’s probably the biggest piece of the variability. I can tell you that the guidance is mapped directly back to things like sales quotas, and the way we pay people for performance has changed as well. So, all of that is designed to drive us to where that guidance is. But it’s really around the things beyond our control that move us to between the high and the low. As it relates to the Quantum piece, I mean I think your point is a valid one, and that’s obviously I think a risk.

But €“ and frankly, I think you can even see it in some of the penetration numbers from 2021. I was very concerned about putting fiber in the ground for the sake of putting fiber in the ground, right. We need to make sure that we remain focused on those large metros that we have talked about and that we stop being so focused on a cost per enablement and on a number of enablements and more around making sure that in those markets that we are serving, that customers are going to want our product. And so I think even though this is a little bit painful in the near-term, we are seeing really good performance on our planning yield, meaning when we plan a market and it goes to engineering and then it comes out of engineering that we have been able to accurately estimate the cost so that we can proceed to construction rather than having to go back to planning all over again.

So, we are seeing some really good activities internally. But I would much rather have this conversation today than one 5 years from now, where we hit $1,000, and we hit the 10 million enablements, and then you guys are asking me where the annuity stream is on all that fiber. And my own opinion, our opinion, is that I think you are going to see that from some of the overbuilders in markets that are building for the sake of building rather than really having a returns mindset around it.

Greg Williams: Got it. Thank you.

Mike McCormack: Thanks Greg. Next question please.

Operator: And our next question is from the line of Batya Levi from UBS. Please go ahead.

Batya Levi: Great. Thank you. It looks like you are expecting another 10% decline in organic EBITDA this year aside from the impact from dissynergies and inflation and higher investments for growth. Can you provide a little bit more color on the drivers for that organic decline? Does that assume maybe worsening top line trends as we go through the transition, or is it more of a mix shift where growth is coming from lower margin services? Thank you.

Chris Stansbury: Yes. Batya, it’s Chris. I think the key thing is we do have that grow bucket which is now the largest bucket. It’s not growing enough, okay. And that’s really where the focus is. So, the reason you see in total organic declines is that we have harvest and nurture buckets that are declining at high-single digit rates. Margin is really not a concern as we move into the grow bucket. We have disclosed that in the presentation. But when you look at our direct margins, it’s actually beneficial to us when we move into the grow products. So, it’s really about managing that migration because we still have roughly two-thirds of the business that’s declining at very high rates and how do we supercharge the grow bucket.

So, the starting €“ the performance itself isn’t where we want it to be, but the starting point is actually pretty strong. We have got a good base there. So, I would say that’s one thing. The second thing is, obviously, we are in a tough macro environment where everybody is being very thoughtful about the money they spend. So, if you think about us doing a reset, we are doing it in a tough environment. So, I think both of those things combined are really what’s driving that.

Batya Levi: Maybe just a quick follow-up, how should we think about the pacing of that EBITDA decline through the year? Is first half the trough because you have the dissynergies, or is that going to be offset as you ramp up investment for growth?

Chris Stansbury: Look, I don’t want to get too scientific around that because we obviously have a lot of variability. For example, in our OpEx quarter-to-quarter, we have higher OpEx in the summer when it’s hotter and we are doing more construction. So, there is a lot of moving pieces in there. I would say the most important thing is that revenue number. And I think over time, we would like to be able to show you guys that the decline rate is slowing. And I think that’s going to be the first leading indicator that we are on our way to growth. And so I don’t want to predict when in the year you start to see that. Again, it’s a 2-year journey until we get to stabilization. But I would watch that over time, and I think that’s the best way to measure our success.

Batya Levi: Okay. Thank you.

Mike McCormack: Thanks Batya. Next question please.

Operator: Our next question is from the line of Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead.