Lithium Argentina AG (NYSE:LAR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Lithium Argentina AG (NYSE:LAR) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript May 12, 2026

Operator: Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Lithium Argentina Q1 2026 Earnings Presentation. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Kelly O’Brien, VP, Investor Relations. Kelly, please go ahead.

Kelly O’Brien: Thank you for the introduction. I want to welcome everyone to our conference call this morning. Joining me on the call today to discuss the first quarter 2026 results is Sam Pigott, CEO of Lithium Argentina. Alex Shulga, our CFO, will also be available for Q&A. Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our first quarter 2026 earnings results were press released earlier this morning, and the corresponding documents are available on our website. I remind you that some of the statements made during this call, including any production guidance, expected company performance, update on development plans, the timing of our project and market conditions may be considered forward-looking statements. Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements in our presentation, MD&A and news releases. I will now turn the call over to Sam Pigott.

Sam Pigott: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. The first quarter of 2026 represented another very strong quarter as Cauchari-Olaroz continued to operate at or near design capacity while beginning to generate meaningful cash flow. During the quarter, production totaled about 9,700 tonnes of lithium carbonate with the operation averaging approximately 97% of nameplate capacity, a level we’ve been able to consistently run for the past two quarters. This performance also highlights the progress we are making on costs. First quarter operating cash costs were down again to just under $5,400 per tonne, making Cauchari-Olaroz one of the lowest cost lithium operations globally. I also want to highlight that since the beginning of the year, we have been able to distribute around $100 million in cash from Cauchari-Olaroz, $48 million for Lithium Argentina’s share, strengthening our balance sheet and highlighting the cash-generating capability of the operation.

This quarter reinforces the importance of Cauchari-Olaroz, both in what we’ve achieved with Stage 1 and in the opportunity to grow from here. On the left side of the slide, we’ve summarized operational and financial metrics for the quarter at Cauchari-Olaroz, which reflect both strong operations and an improving lithium pricing environment. As noted previously, realized prices increased to just under $17,000 per tonne for the first three months of the year compared to just over $9,000 per tonne in the fourth quarter last year. Combined with stable production and continued cost discipline, we have produced an over threefold increase in EBITDA quarter-over-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA, which removes primarily noncash FX fluctuations, increased to $106 million for the quarter, up from $30 million in the fourth quarter.

Turning to costs. Last quarter, we highlighted the progress of our cost reduction efforts at the operation, and I am pleased to say that we reduced them even further in the first quarter, bringing our cash operating costs down below $5,400 per tonne. While these costs demonstrate what the operation is capable of, some quarter-to-quarter variability should be expected as we remain focused on driving costs lower over the long term. We are also watching the situation in the Middle East closely. And so far, we are seeing a limited impact related to costs and availability of key supplies of reagents such as soda ash. The operations at Cauchari-Olaroz do not require an energy-intensive process, have minimal diesel needs and do not need sulfuric acid, relying principally on solar evaporation.

As noted previously, direct diesel consumption makes up less than 3% of our direct operating costs. I think it’s important to spend some time showing how the EBITDA generated at Cauchari-Olaroz translates to cash flow. As mentioned, during Q1, the operation generated $106 million in adjusted EBITDA. There is roughly a two month lag between when these sales are made and when the cash is received at the operation. As we’ve outlined, we are expecting over 90%, nearly all of this EBITDA to convert to free cash flow this year and support our growth plans by providing capital to strengthen and derisk our balance sheet. We expect this cash flow generation should become increasingly evident through the second and third quarters. In terms of adjustments, during the first quarter, sustaining CapEx was even lower than normalized levels estimated at around $4 million to $5 million per quarter.

On the interest side, we have a small amount of third-party project level debt, which is approximately the same as it was at the beginning of the year, even after making around $100 million in distributions and represents less than 0.5x net debt to Q1 EBITDA on an annualized basis. Related to tax and other costs, we expect cash taxes to increase in the coming years, but we are realizing the benefits of accelerated depreciation in our intercompany loan structure, which is providing a much stronger cash flow generation during these early years of operations. The high level of cash flow generation from EBITDA during both high and low price scenarios is important to understand to see how we will leverage this cash flow to support our expansion plans and derisk our balance sheet.

Now turning to our outlook for 2026. This year’s production guidance of 35,000 to 40,000 tons remains unchanged. This estimate has some flexibility built in as we look to optimize this year’s production and also consider efforts to support sustained higher production levels in the years to come. We have provided an EBITDA outlook across a range of prices and see substantial upside as market reference prices move closer to the futures pricing. Currently, our realized prices include an approximate 6% to 7% adjustment to market pricing. We expect this differential will decrease as consistency continues to improve and product quality evolves. Recent lithium prices range from roughly $20,000 to $30,000 per ton. At those levels, the operation is capable of generating approximately $460 million to $630 million of EBITDA in 2026 on a 100% basis.

Moving to the market. We are seeing a much more constructive view on price and the sustainability of these higher prices based on accelerating energy storage demand. On the EV side, we are seeing a much stronger outlook today, including for commercial vehicles than at the start of the year. This is supported by recent developments in the oil market as well as the increasingly strong performance in low cost of batteries, which now offer longer ranges and faster charging capabilities. It will take time to bring on enough new lithium supply to meet that growing demand. large-scale and high-quality projects with experienced teams and a successful track record are rare. Against that backdrop, we believe assets like Cauchari-Olaroz Stage 2 and PPG are becoming increasingly strategic within the global lithium supply chain.

During the first quarter, we made substantial progress advancing and derisking our Stage 2 development plan, which is targeting to add an additional 45,000 tonnes per year of production capacity. One of the key upcoming milestones is the approval of the RIGI application, which was filed late last year. We understand this is progressing well and could be approved as early as this quarter. Another important catalyst is the advancement of the environmental permits. This is underpinned by a recently updated resource estimate and a basin-wide hydro geological model supporting the project’s ability to sustainably extract brine needed for these higher production levels. We are working closely with our partner to finalize the development plan midyear.

Building off the success of Stage 1, the plan is expected to incorporate new technologies while leveraging Ganfeng expertise in lithium chemical processing and modular construction capabilities in China to help optimize time lines and overall development costs. We believe future growth should be funded in a manner aligned with shareholder interests, prioritizing Stage 1 cash flow generation and access to low-cost project level debt where appropriate, while minimizing the need for equity issuance and limiting shareholder dilution. I want to spend a minute talking about the communities around Cauchari-Olaroz because these relationships are an important part of the operation. We’ve been working in the region for many years now and have built long-term relationships with communities across the region through agreements, local hiring, procurement and ongoing engagement as the operation has grown.

And I think that’s important context as we discuss Stage 2. We expect ongoing dialogue with the neighboring communities where important relationships have been built and expect this to be an important part of supporting the next phase of growth at Cauchari-Olaroz. Moving to PPG. This is an equally important part of our longer-term growth platform in Argentina and represents a key source of value. As a reminder, the scoping study released late last year outlined a phased development plan targeting up to 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate production over time, beginning with an initial 50,000 tonne phase. By combining three separate projects, we believe PPG will be one of Argentina’s largest lithium operations, benefiting from scale and synergies related to being a single operator across one single massive lithium system.

Our focus here is also to derisk and provide a path to value creation for Lithium Argentina’s shareholders. Working with Ganfeng, we are looking at the option to bring in a minority investor at the project level. So far, we have been very pleased with both the level and breadth of interest there is from global groups seeking exposure to large-scale, low-cost and scalable lithium supply from brines. PPG is on a strong path to create value. The combined assets have a historic book value of $1.7 billion based on investments made and the development plan has a range of NPV values from $6 billion to $8 billion. Overall, I believe finding a minority partner for PPG represents an opportunity to continue growing responsibly and unlocking significant value in a manner that does not require equity dilution or reliance on cash flow from Cauchari-Olaroz.

As we look ahead, our focus remains on disciplined execution at Cauchari-Olaroz. The stronger financial position established over the past year, supported by distributions from Cauchari-Olaroz and the recently completed debt facility alongside Ganfeng provides additional financial flexibility. At the same time, we continue to advance and systematically derisk our broader growth platform, which includes Stage 2 and PPG. These projects will benefit from the ongoing permitting progress, rigging approvals, development planning and other key upcoming technical and financial milestones. As we look to broaden our investor base and improve market visibility globally, we are considering plans for a secondary listing on the ASX, which we believe could further strengthen our position with international investors and support long-term shareholder value.

Our focus remains on disciplined execution and continuing to systematically derisk the broader growth platform in Argentina.

Q&A Session

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Anthony Taglieri with Canaccord.

Anthony Taglieri: What might be a good expectation for cash distributions coming from the JV for the rest of the year, just given obviously the $48 million attributable generated year-to-date, 90% free cash flow conversion targeted? And how does this mesh with other objectives like paying down debt and funding the Stage 2 expansion?

Sam Pigott: Yes. I think the way we look at it is that the project is going to be generating a significant amount of cash that will show up in Q2, Q3, Q4, the remainder of the year. I think between prices of $20 to $30, it’s EBITDA of $460 million to $630 million, cash flow conversion of 90%. So you can see how the cash is going to build within the business. I think the priority #1 will be redeploying part of that cash into preparing for Stage 2. However, it’s certainly not going to absorb that amount of cash. So for the remainder, I think the secondary priority will be to make cash distributions. The joint venture level debt profile has improved a lot. So it’s been termed out, very low cost, currently running at 0.5x net debt to kind of annualized Q1 EBITDA.

So we feel very comfortable with that. So I think we’ll continue to work in align with Ganfeng on making cash distributions throughout the year and also spending on early-stage CapEx, certainly after we get the rig approval for Stage 2 in preparation for the expansion that will be coming.

Anthony Taglieri: Okay. Great. And maybe just following up with that, assuming the approval comes soon, what could sort of CapEx expectations look like this year then?

Sam Pigott: I mean I think for the full FID decision, that’s going to depend on getting environmental permits in place, which is really a 2027 event. I think the RIGI will help in terms of catalyzing or accelerating that potential permitting process. But there are things that we can start to look at in order to accelerate Stage 2, but these would be fairly immaterial CapEx expenditures in 2026.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

Evan McCaul: It’s Evan on for Joel. Just wanted to discuss some of the puts and takes on the pricing discounts this year. So I know there’s a VAT and the quality discount. And if you don’t mind kind of discussing how that’s going to flow throughout the year? And maybe if that’s steady state, what we’re seeing in Q1?

Sam Pigott: Yes. I mean for Q1, what we disclosed was the — we were taking a 6% to 7% discount from reference prices. So these are reference prices stripped of Chinese VAT. I think looking ahead, there’s room for improvement here. The consistency of our product continues to improve. the product quality also evolves. So I think there is room to improve on what we had in Q1 throughout the rest of the year. And certainly, as we move into 2027, and we’ve talked a lot about this in the past, the objective of our partner and ourselves is to be able to supply lithium chemicals directly to customers without going through China and therefore, being able to capture kind of the full spot price. So I think you can — for modeling assumptions, I think the 6% to 7% discount from reference price, there is room throughout the year for that to improve.

Evan McCaul: Okay. Just a second one. of your progress on Phase 2 with 3D expected soon. Anything new on PPG? Or is that still similar as is the last update?

Sam Pigott: It’s — yes, I think we’re making significant progress on advancing options, which we have many to unlock value for this project, including potentially bringing in a minority partner. It’s a bit premature at this point to provide specific timing around that event, but we would hope to provide more color midyear, probably around the same time when we’re providing updates on Stage 2 development plans. But just as a reminder, we have made the submission for the RIGI for the PPG project, which will be an important catalyst Permits for Phase 1, the first 50,000 tonne development plan, which will start in Venezuela have been secured. So it’s just working with Ganfeng, not necessarily rushing a decision, but ensuring that we make the best decision for shareholders that maximizes value and provides kind of the foundational capital required to fund the Stage 1 CapEx.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Corinne Blanchard with Deutsche Bank.

Corinne Blanchard: Maybe first, can you guys talk about lithium pricing? I mean, obviously, you got a good inflation point for this quarter. And I think if you look at spot price in lithium futures a few days ago, that would imply to see another big jump in 2Q and probably 3Q. But it would be great to hear where do you think that can go to for Idea in the next two, three quarter?

Sam Pigott: I mean, predicting short-term moves in lithium prices is a challenging business, as you know. I think the read-through we get from our partner who obviously have a tremendous amount of kind of insights and touch points within China is the market is extremely tight. So yes, I mean, pricing has continued to climb pretty aggressively since Q1 in our realized pricing. So we feel pretty strongly that, that market will continue to — the market demand will continue to support these higher prices. In terms of where it reaches, I’m reluctant to provide that kind of granular forecast, but we feel very, very good about Q2, obviously, and throughout the rest of this year.

Corinne Blanchard: And then maybe for a second question, can you talk about — I think you mentioned wanted to be doing the ASX inclusion. Is that the only index that you’re thinking of maybe for a secondary listing? Or are you thinking any in Asia like Hong Kong or so?

Sam Pigott: I mean I think, yes, we’ve looked at all different avenues to try and broaden our visibility globally. And I think the ASX has emerged as one of the strongest areas, I think, for lithium producers like lithium Argentina. I think it’s a market that appreciates free cash flow and the cost profile of brines and has also kind of taken notice of larger mining companies moving into Argentina and the change of the risk profile there. So yes, I mean, I think the ASX does stand out. We obviously have no plans to get rid of the New York Stock Exchange listing. But I think the ASX could be useful as we spend more time in Asia Pacific and Australia. And just on the ASX, we’re advancing a plan. It could have us listed there as early as midyear.

But we should note that this is a secondary listing, and we’re certainly not planning for any IPO or financing associated with this listing plan. But from all our research, it does indicate that the ASX would be very supportive of a company like Lithium Argentina and the low-cost brine profile that we would provide investors there.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ishan Jain with HSBC.

Ishan Jain: Great set of numbers. Just following up on your listing plan in Australia. So what I understand is not for the funding or financing the next leg of growth probably, but to improve, I’ll say, the investor interest or given broadening the access. Is that the correct assumption?

Sam Pigott: That’s the correct assumption, yes.

Ishan Jain: Yes. And secondly, on the cost side, you did highlight, right, your long-term target is of $5,400 per tonne cost. So is there scope of further improvement in this target? Should we expect it to further lower costs from the current levels?

Sam Pigott: I mean $5,400 was a number that we put out at the beginning of the year to reflect our existing cost structure at nameplate capacity at $40,000 per tonne. I think we’re obviously very comfortable in that assumption given that Q1 costs came in slightly below that or in line with that, even at 96.8% operating capacity. So I mean, I think there is opportunities longer term for us to look at ways to bring costs down. Those probably come from elements of continuing to improve recoveries, continue to optimize the plant. But at this stage, given 5,400 was kind of a number we put out at the beginning of the year based on our existing cost structure, I think we’ll stick to that. But with the caveat that, of course, especially working with our partner, we’re always looking for ways to bring down costs. And I think we’re very comfortable with what we put out just a few months ago in terms of where long-term costs would be, and that happened very quickly.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Mac Whale with ATB Cormark.

MacMurray Whale: You gave some indication for at current prices, what the EBITDA looks like. In terms of the pricing, is that with the VAT off of that reference pricing and still the discount? Like what are the — what’s the basis on pricing for that?

Sam Pigott: Yes, that’s right. So that reference price, the $20 to $30 is like ex VAT.

MacMurray Whale: Okay. And then — but then you’re just putting in that pricing, you’re assuming there’s no further discount in terms of generating those numbers. I just want to make sure I’m modeling.

Sam Pigott: No, that would be assumed discount as well.

MacMurray Whale: Okay. Can you also — can you remind us how the royalty payment works? It seems higher than I’m modeling. I just wanted to check that I’ve got that correct. It’s based off like a gross profit number less depreciation. Is that correct, like some percentage of that?

Sam Pigott: That’s broadly correct, but maybe I’ll turn it over to Alex to provide a little bit more detail.

Alexander Shulga: Yes, sure, Mac. So we have several taxes, royalties. We have export tax less refund and we have provincial royalties, which are the kind of larger parts of what kind of goes below C1 cost. If you take, for example, export tax, then that’s revenue minus certain expenses like temporary imports for some of the reagents. And that’s net of export refunds approximately 2.87%, 2.9%. So that’s kind of connected to revenue. That’s why it jumped up as well, right? So — and then in terms of provincial royalties, that is 3% of revenue minus C1 cost less certain deductions, if I were to look at it in a simple way.

MacMurray Whale: So when you — I guess, if we were to look at pricing like this $12.5 million on selling duties and royalties, kind of a bunch lumped in there. Some, I guess, is sort of more fixed, but I’m just trying to figure out how.

Alexander Shulga: Part — yes, there’s part that’s a percentage of revenue, and that’s a part that is a fixed deduction from that. So yes, it’s a bit of a combination, but a significant portion is connected to revenue. That’s why it jumps up.

MacMurray Whale: So when we — if we’re trying to come up with an EBITDA number at the Cauchari-Olaroz level, that should all be negative to EBITDA, right? So if we — there should be nothing in there that’s not — that we would take out of EBITDA would there or add back?

Alexander Shulga: No, because all of this we include in EBITDA, right? So this export taxes, expert funds, all of this is already deducted from EBITDA.

MacMurray Whale: Okay. So we should be looking at all things being equal, that level, there isn’t any onetime stuff in there. It should be kind of trending higher as pricing rises.

Alexander Shulga: Yes, that’s right.

MacMurray Whale: Yes.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Mohamed Sidibe with National Bank.

Mohamed Sidibe: On the strong numbers in the quarter. You reported pretty good cost in Q1, and I appreciate your commentary on the long-term cost there. I was just wondering if you could maybe provide us some color on inflation in country and potential FX impact. It seems like you’ve been managing to offset most of that through your operational improvements, but any color would be useful there.

Sam Pigott: Inflationary pressures, I think obviously, diesel prices globally have gone up. Argentina is not immune. Luckily for us, direct oil and gas diesel costs are less than 3% of our OpEx. So it is — there will be some inflation there, but it is a very immaterial kind of piece of our cost structure. In terms of wages, yes, I mean, there’s constantly kind of fluctuations in terms of how inflation is running versus devaluation and the impact on kind of like the dollar equivalent cost of Peso labor expenses. But again, those are somewhat manageable and not all that material. So we feel very good about our cost profile and kind of our insulation against kind of broader inflationary trends globally.

Mohamed Sidibe: Great. And just on the ASX listing, maybe I know you clarified no plan on removing the New York Stock Exchange. What are your thinking around the TSX? Is that something that’s up for debate? Or how do you look at that listing?

Sam Pigott: I mean, yes, we’re evaluating just kind of the puts and takes of obviously, the Australian listing, which I think as I described, seems to be a market that would be supportive of bringing on kind of a brine exposure, which is something that is unique, not — wouldn’t just be unique to the ASX, but I think really in terms of pure-play equity exposures in the brine space, it’s a pretty limited pool of options that investors globally have. So I think without a doubt, the ASX would make a lot of sense. Yes, I think it’s too early to commit to whether we would consider dropping the TSX. We have to wait pros and cons, and so we’ll make that determination and provide further updates in the months to come.

Operator: We have reached the end of the Q&A session. This does conclude today’s call. Thank you very much for attending, and you may now disconnect.