Lincoln Educational Services Corporation (NASDAQ:LINC) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Brian Meyers: Right. So, some of that is due to a little bit of lower income, but a lot of that’s a discrete item that helps in the first quarter, and a lot of that is due to what our stock price is at. So, we really weren’t taking that into account. So, the first quarter could be slightly low due to the discrete items when things vest versus the price that they were granted at. That accounts for most of the higher rates.

Alex Paris: Okay. Thank you. And then, early in the call, Scott, I think you mentioned the grad rate — graduation rate and grad placement. Can you just go over that again? I missed it.

Scott Shaw: Sure. We improved our graduation rate up to north of 68%, about a 500-basis point improvement, I think it’s 68.8%. And our placement rate increased about 2 percentage points to 81.6%.

Alex Paris: That’s great. Okay. Thank you. I’ll take the rest of my questions offline.

Scott Shaw: Okay. Great. Thanks, Alex.

Brian Meyers: Thank you, Alex.

Alex Paris: Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is coming from Raj Sharma of B. Riley. Your line is open.

Raj Sharma: Yes, thank you. Again, congratulations on good results in Q4. I have a couple of questions. First on the new programs, the 10 new programs. With Atlanta and Nashville already in progress, what are — so I just wanted to clarify the additional expenses that are budgeted for the new programs. I know you said $29 million of CapEx. What is the operating expense increase for the new programs? And also, can you talk about the potential revenue and profitability we can assume on these new programs? Just more color.

Brian Meyers: I’ll talk about the probability for 2023, depending on the timing of the rolling out of these programs and a lot of them, as Scott mentioned, is going to be going into 2024. So, I’ll say the EBITDA is, I would say, under $100,000 loss for the rollout of the new program. So, it won’t really be contributing this year, but it will be contributing in the future. And as far as, I would say, when the new programs reach capacity, we’re hoping to add our EBITDA of about $1 million for each new program should be adding by 2025 $1 million.

Raj Sharma: And what does that translate into revenues?

Scott Shaw: I would say it’d be somewhere around, let’s say, a $4 million level.

Raj Sharma: Got it. And the additional expenses entirely account for — what are the additional expenses? Is that the operating increase from this year is about the increase you’re seeing in the third quarter of about $10 million to $15 million?

Brian Meyers: For 2022, you’re talking about…

Scott Shaw: You’re saying, Raj, looking at expenses for 2023, what’s driving the increases there?

Raj Sharma: Yes. Just — yes, the delta between ’23 and ’22, is that entirely driven by the new programs? And is that mostly to…

Brian Meyers: Right. So, most of them for the new programs is later in the year, but what’s driving that, as we said, is we continue to roll out the hybrid teaching model. So, we do have a lot of, I’ll call it, double expenses as we teach the old program, and we’re teaching the new program. So, a lot of those expenses are occurring this year as well as we do have additional expenses for — should be done by the end of the year in our financial aid, because that is our financial centralization that’s going through 2023 as well. A lot of increase is mostly due to the instructional plus translating — transitioning to the hybrid model as well as we are making greater investment in marketing as well for 2024 — 2023, rather.

Raj Sharma: Got it. And then, just moving on to the starts. The starts, you’re projecting 5% to 10%. That’s — is that same-store starts? Or does that include the contribution from new programs and new campuses?