Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. on Consume Your Own Tech Investing’s Substack by Benjamin Tan. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on LTH. Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. ‘s share was trading at $27.98 as of August 13^th. LTH’s trailing and forward P/E were 27.43 and 21.69, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Life Time Group Holdings (LTH) operates 184 centers across the U.S. and Canada, positioning itself as a premium wellness destination that blends fitness, lifestyle, and community. With offerings spanning gyms, spas, childcare, cafés, and fast-growing amenities like pickleball, Life Time attracts a diverse member base—families, professionals, retirees—driving record-high visits and retention. This inclusivity underpins its pricing power and member stickiness, allowing the company to focus on raising prices and expanding ancillary revenue rather than chasing volume.

Management targets 10–12 new openings annually, favoring measured growth in affluent urban and suburban markets, including mall and residential integrations. Financial performance is improving meaningfully: Q2 2025 revenue grew 14% to $762 million, net income rose 37%, and free cash flow remained positive for the fifth consecutive quarter. Adjusted EBITDA reached $211 million, surpassing Planet Fitness despite far fewer members, reflecting Life Time’s high-value, asset-intensive model. Strategic sale-leaseback deals, including $150 million in June and $100 million more planned in H2, are converting real estate into capital while reducing net debt leverage from 3.0x to 1.8x.

Risks include reliance on affluent members, high operating leverage, and still-nascent digital and branded product initiatives, but guidance calls for 2025 revenue growth of ~14% to $3.0 billion, EBITDA growth of 20%, and net income growth over 86%. At ~$27 per share, Life Time trades at ~12x forward EBITDA versus ~20x for Planet Fitness, suggesting valuation upside. With disciplined execution, sustained margin expansion, and a long runway in untapped markets, LTH could more than double in value over the next two to three years, offering attractive asymmetric risk/reward.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG) by Strategic Alpha in September 2024, highlighting undervaluation, venue growth, and value unlock via segment separation. The stock has depreciated approximately 9.53% since then due to delayed restructuring benefits. The thesis still stands as separation could drive rerating. Benjamin Tan shares a similar view but focuses on premium positioning and margin expansion in Life Time Group Holdings.

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Disclosure: None.