Liberty Global Ltd. (LBTYA): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Liberty Global Ltd. on Value Don’t Lie’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on LBTYA. Liberty Global Ltd.’s share was trading at $9.70 as of 19^th June. LBTYA’s trailing  PE was 16.03 according to Yahoo Finance.

Liberty Global (LBTYA) now trades at a significant discount to its underlying asset value, creating a compelling opportunity. The post-spin RemainCo consists of three wholly-owned telecom operators—Telenet (Belgium), Virgin (Ireland), and UPC (Slovakia)—alongside two 50%-owned joint ventures (VMO2 in the UK and VodafoneZiggo in the Netherlands), and a sizable investment portfolio.

As of Q3 2024, the investment portfolio was valued at $14.5 billion, or roughly $40.55 per share, with 66% of that tied up in the two joint ventures. Liberty’s consolidated businesses generated $1.23 billion in operating EBITDA in 2023, implying a 10.7x EBITDA multiple on its $13.2 billion enterprise value. Adjusting for net debt post-spin, the operating businesses alone may be worth at least $8.55 billion using a conservative 7x EBITDA multiple.

Coupling this with a modest 25% discount on the investment portfolio still yields a net asset value of ~$30.50 per share, more than double the current ~$13 share price. Despite past capital returns through aggressive buybacks ($16 billion over eight years), shareholder returns have lagged, prompting management to shift focus toward asset sales or spin-offs to close the value gap.

While the operating companies are currently negative on free cash flow due to high capex, especially at Telenet, the joint ventures generate steady cash dividends ($1.3–1.4 billion annually), providing additional support. With a realigned strategy and a deep discount to NAV, Liberty Global represents a high-upside, asset-rich investment story with multiple catalysts for value realization.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Liberty Global Ltd. (LBTYA) by OkCaptain7928 in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s SOTP valuation, asset monetization potential, and shareholder-friendly strategy. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately 20% since our coverage. This is because the thesis has yet to play out. Value Don’t Lie shares a similar view but emphasizes valuation clarity and strategic focus.

Liberty Global Ltd. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 36 hedge fund portfolios held LBTYA at the end of the first quarter, which was 38 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of LBTYA as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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