Lennox International Inc. (NYSE:LII) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Nigel Coe : Right. I’ll e-mail those suppliers to you offline, okay?

Alok Maskara: Thanks, Nigel.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Tommy Moll with Stephens Inc.

Tommy Moll : I wanted to start on price mix and your outlook for the year, mid-single-digit contribution. Can you give us any sense of the phasing there? I presume it’s going to contribute a little bit more to growth in the back half versus the second half? And then if you think about what’s the art of the possible here over the next 2 years, Alok, I think in the past, you’ve said 15%, 15% plus is a good bogey to use for where we’ll land by the end of 2025. But I wonder if you could just refresh us there? And are you any more or less confident on that outlook?

Joe Reitmeier: Yes. So I’ll first answer on the price, we see that mostly starting to build in through Q2, Q3 and Q4. As we announced in Q1, it will take a little bit of time to get that new price increase. But in Q1 is where you’ll see the carryover benefit on the mix side from the minimum SEER product, we’ll get the full year benefit of that.

Alok Maskara: I think, Tommy, on the overall, we stick to the 10% to 15% total pricing impact by 2025. A large part of that is going to happen in 2025 as like in our 54 products start getting launched towards the tail end or second half of this year. So we will see a lot more of that benefit next year than they will see this year which is unfortunate because we’ll see some of the manufacturing inefficiencies this year as we transition our line from 410 to 454B, a lot more of the benefit coming to as tail half of this year or like early next year is when we start seeing those benefits. But our view and outlook has not changed on that, and I was glad to see that others in the industry are also now catching up to that dynamic because there’s extra cost of sensors, there’s extra cost of controls, there’s extra cost that we’re going to do as we look at the heating capacity, compressors. There’s just a lot of extra cost that we must offset.

Tommy Moll : Good to hear. I wanted to follow up with a question on M&A. There’s another participant in the market that’s talked about potentially turning loose of some assets. Begs the question just about your appetite for M&A at this point or any insight you might share there?

Alok Maskara: Sure. I expected that to be one of the first question. I’m surprised it was a third question on the call today. So but [indiscernible]. Listen, I’ll start by saying a few things, right? First of all, in the past, even before my time, Lennox has been very clear that if there is an industry consolidation opportunity, Lennox will like to participate. And we have specifically named out companies that we would like to participate if that came on. So let me just confirm that, that view has not changed. We still believe that if there’s an opportunity that Lennox would be a participant in that. Overall, when I look at it industry consolidation, it’s good for quite a few reasons. As we look at increased regulations, as we look at dealer consolidation.

I think we’ll better serve our customers. We’ll better look at technology to come to the consumer. I think it gives us the right kind of investments that we can make to succeed. So I think it’s going to be good. We would like to participate as and when things become clear and available. I don’t want to comment specifically on any specific company and the news. But all I can tell you is that we don’t have to do this. I mean, we are very confident in our own stand-alone strategy as well. We have sufficient scale to compete. We are gaining share in respective segments. We have like a very good technology team and a great path forward. So I think that’s kind of the balanced outlook on that is if there’s an opportunity, we would like to participate, but we’re also very confident on where we are positioned ourselves.

Operator: And we’ll take our next question from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

Julian Mitchell : Thanks, Joe, for all the help. Maybe just a first question on the sort of cadence of earnings through the year, is it can be kind of tricky looking at — does pre-COVID seasonality apply or has something changed and we have the nuance of the Mexican plant and the refrigerant change. So are we assuming it’s a kind of sort of 50-50 split first half versus second half earnings and then Q1 and always seasonally low and maybe you’re starting out the year with weak home comfort volume.

Joe Reitmeier: Yes, I think I’d look at the revenue seasonality in kind of 50-50. Q2 and Q3 should be pretty similar kind of 30% of the year each then you have kind of 20-ish in Q1 and Q4 on the revenue guide. That’s similar to what we saw in 2023.

Julian Mitchell : And then if we’re thinking about the split within Home Comfort solutions for the year as a whole in terms of volumes. How wide a bifurcation should there be in the director contractor versus independent distribution? Just trying to understand kind of how quickly that delta narrows after being very significant in the fourth quarter.