On licensed sauces, you got a couple of things going on. Chick-fil-A sauce is continuing to grow in the mid-single digits albeit off of the pace that they were on before. I think that is so unique that consumers are continuing to support it. We did see some softness in Olive Garden as consumers traded out. We could watch them trade from larger sizes, small sizes and small sizes out. That’s why we went in and made that price point adjustment. We feel like we’re in a good place there. Buffalo Wild Wings and Arby’s, where for all intents and purposes really launched and supported last year. Buffalo Wild Wings at this point in time we were getting tens of millions of dollars of free advertising on TikTok. And you’re going to note, if you’re looking at weekly scanner data, we’re going to have a rough few weeks probably more like eight weeks.
As we comp that period. The business still year-on-year is up more than 25%. So – and if you look at it on a two-year stack it’s up considerably more than that. So in this case I don’t think it’s whether or not the proposition is relevant. We have some hard comps. Things like Arby’s, a really unique SKU, a unique occasion. We’ve got crazy support from retailers last year behind us. And this year without the support it’s not selling quite as well off the shelf. What I would maybe ground on with every one of these Rob is what we’re trying to look at is the velocities of the item and where do they play in the greater condiment space. And all of these play in the top quarter of the category in terms of velocity. So we feel like some are – they’re the Mickey Mantle’s of the lineup and some of these are maybe more position players but all of them seem to have an important role with our retailers.
And again, hopefully, that gives you some of the flavor the context you’re looking for.
Robert Dickerson: Yes. No that was even better than the last answer. I’ll pass it on.
Dave Ciesinski: Thank you.
Robert Dickerson: Thanks, guys.
Dave Ciesinski: Thank you, Rob.
Tom Pigott: Thanks, Rob.
Operator: Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question comes from Brian Holland of D.A. Davidson.
Brian Holland: Yes. Thanks. Good morning. So I wanted to ask…
Dave Ciesinski: Good morning, Brian.
Brian Holland: Good morning. I wanted to ask about the PNOC trend. So egg on [ph] market were not modeling this appropriately in Q2 and accounting for hey a more normalized environment means. You get some mix benefit as well, skewing towards retail in 2Q. But I just want to make sure, if we kind of disaggregate the mix benefits kind of flowing through in a normal year versus PNOC. Is the PNOC spread widening and becoming increasingly favorable if we look to recent quarters to Q2. And if we think about the back half is the commentary that the PNOC spread narrows relative like 2Q was a peak PNOC spread? Or is the second half a little bit more – commentary more about the mix impact, where lower-margin Foodservice is a higher percentage of your total net sales if that makes sense.
Dave Ciesinski: Yes. Well let me take the – I’ll take the first crack at the answer Brian and then I’ll turn it over to Tom, maybe to try to go even deeper. And the first thing I would tell you is I don’t think I’m egg on your face in this case. I think one of the hard things about this past quarter really the last six months for all of us has been trying to forecast where commodities are going to go. Soybean oil for example, if we were looking at, where was soybean oil in September, well in September soybean oil was more than $0.60 and that right now it’s trading at $0.45, right? It even went back far that you go back a year it was at $0.60. So the falloff we’ve seen in soybean oil has been pretty precipitous. Over that same period of time if you looked at wheat, let’s say in August we would have been trading somewhere between 700 to 750 right now.
It’s like at 588. So again a pretty steep fall off and corn has fallen off even more. So I think one of the things that’s made call on it harder this time within this narrow window is I think, we’ve seen commodities come off more aggressively than maybe we were anticipating. We’ve been pleasantly surprised. And I think if anything that probably impacted things. If you look at just — this is one of the tie-out we did. And maybe Tom, I’ll let you talk about versus where they were modeling in terms of consensus and where we came out favorable maybe the sources of that variance [indiscernible].
Tom Pigott: Yeah. So Brian to build on Dave’s point, I think what we saw versus the — at the time we talked to you last we saw favorability in soybean oil, flour and grain, eggs all of those contributed to the favorable PNOC performance versus our expectations as well. And I think as Dave hit on, we’re very cognizant of making the appropriate reinvestments to protect the business on trade, and that’s something that will continue to evolve as the year progresses. But to get to your question in terms of the flow of the PNOC, and Dave mentioned this earlier we’re in a space right now where you have more carryover pricing in retail and the commodity favorabilities that we accreted this quarter. As you progress further, there’s less of that carryover pricing and there’s a bit of a need to reinvest.
So to get to your question I think Q2 from when we look at our PNOC projections is the strongest quarter of the year. And Q3 will be favorable and then less so in Q4, based on — this is all based on our commodity outlook our projections for trade reinvestment which can change, but that’s how we’re looking at it right now.
Dave Ciesinski: And I think modeling the business, Brian that the commodity deflation continues in the PNOC notwithstanding. I think what you’re going to find is that, as commodities come down, it’s going to be a mark-to-market and Foodservice with very modest margin improvement just because obviously the way the math flows. But we do expect the overwhelming majority of the deflation to stick on the Foodservice business. And you’re going to see — see the retail business which means you’re going to drive retail margin improvement which when you guys if you haven’t got a chance to go through the queue you’ll see that broken out in there in more detail. So I think the mix of the businesses in terms of margin. Our hope is that this commodity deflation sticks we should begin to see our retail business revert to some of the historical margins that we’ve had there.
