Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (NYSE:KNX) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And so we have non-asset broker capacity that is committed at these very, very low rates and certainly seems to be setting up for a squeeze there. And so some of our customers, I think, are able to read the writing on that wall. What none of us know is exactly when that’s going to happen. Every day that goes by, we’re a day closer to an inflection. And we’ve written out the longest trough that certainly that I’ve seen in to almost 24 years of being here. And so that’s a little bit of the lay of the land, Jack. I’m not sure if I adequately answered your question. Do you have a follow-up to that?

Jack Atkins: No, you did, Dave. I guess I’m just trying to get a feel for are some shippers really trying to get that last push or are they willing to work with you? That sounds like the answer is they’re willing to work with you a little bit here by and large. And is that the right way to kind of think about it?

David Jackson: These are negotiations, and I could appreciate at our customer on the other side, they’re trying to do the best they can for their interest. And I will tell you, we — there is a place, the Clint Eastwood line, a man’s got to know his limitations there is a place where we simply cannot concede anymore. And we often get to these in cycles. But we’ve never been pushed this far from how high the OR gets here. But we are definitely in that place to where the alternative to accepting rate decreases is we have less commitments. We’re more exposed to the spot and we have to rely on our diversified model. And so the way I would answer your question, Jack, is I would say there are some customers that I believe through this process will lead us to have a little more exposure to the spot because of perhaps a short-term objective that they have.

Now that seems to be the minority so far. But again, it’s only January. We’re early on in the process. We hope that doesn’t happen because that only leads to disruption for us and for them. And we think it costs more in the end. I think we could demonstrate that with data. So we hope that’s not the case, but we are not in a position to lower our rates through bids right now.

Jack Atkins: Okay. Thanks very helpful, Dave. Thank you for the time. Really appreciate that answer.

Operator: And your next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Ravi Shanker: Great. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Dave and Adam, I would like to pick your brain on your extensive cycle knowledge, if you will, again, we’ve seen spot rates come up quite meaningfully in the last few weeks. Our in-house indices are also kind of looking a little bit better I’m a little surprised that you still had late December drop off with this improvement and doesn’t look like you’re pointing to much better for January. Why do you think there is this disconnect between the data point and what you’re seeing on the ground? If there is a disconnect, is it weather? Is it something else? And if you can just kind of elaborate a little bit more on what happened late in the fourth quarter that we get? Thank you.

David Jackson: Yes. I think, Ravi, we have to be careful that just because some of the data is a little bit more accessible and easier to get access to in kind of almost a real time. I think we just have to be a little careful to not paint with too broader stroke on some of those smaller data points. I do think that that maybe I’ll share an anecdotal that we’ve heard our team and our logistics group has heard this multiple times from small carriers, which is — we’re going to see what the next 4 to 6 weeks looks like and decide what we do with our business from there. And so I do think you have some small carriers that are just basically saying, “Hey, I just can’t — I can’t run to stand still. I can’t just keep moving and getting loads, long haul loads in particular at unsustainably low rates just to keep moving and hopes that something else will happen.

And so I think you’re starting to see people that are just saying, hey, if it doesn’t pay, I’m not going to do it. And so the market is stressed. I think a data point that’s been interesting to watch has been the net revocations of authority on the last business day of the month. We’ve seen spikes at the last business day of November. We saw it happen again in December. December was smaller than November. However, not very many would renew their insurance on the last business day of the calendar year. And so I suspect at the end of January, we could see that spike again. We think that spike is tied to carriers who are not able to find insurance. It isn’t just increasing insurance premiums. That’s been an issue, but there have been people willing to finance that, of course, pretty expensive rates on top of that, which further burden the business but allow you to live for another day.

The challenge is if somebody is not willing to underwrite the risk and painfully, we’re aware of what that risk is with very small carriers. And we completely understand why that market is shrinking and why there are small carriers that we believe will struggle to find anybody willing to take that risk. We think we’re seeing the signs of that and that data point in particular. So the market is particularly stressed. So — and as for why you might see 1 little data point to tell you something different a month like December versus maybe what we might feel over a broader period of time, I’d just say not all data is created equal.