Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE:KGC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Andrea Freeborough: On debt reduction, yes I mean, we’re focused on repaying debt. In 2023, we repaid $360 million and $190 million of that was in Q4. So, if you think about similar production in 2024, similar CapEx, and costs a little higher, might be a little bit lower than that. But at $2,000 gold somewhere in the $300 million range, is sort of where we’re thinking.

Carey MacRury: Great. That’s it for me. Thanks.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Lawson Winder from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Lawson Winder: Hi. Thank you very much, operator. And good morning, Kinross team. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple from me. First of all, on the cost assumptions, Andrea, I apologize if I missed it. But did you know what the inflation assumption, was for 2024 versus 2023? And then what was the realized 2023, inflation versus the budget of 5%?

Andrea Freeborough: Sure. So overall, I’ll start with the look back. So looking back at 2023, inflation was around, sort of in line with our expectations. So, we talked about a 5% inflation factor in 2023. And that’s where we came in. Looking forward, we’re seeing labor and contractor costs, continue to increase, while overall inflation, is at least starting to return, to normal levels. And in our cost guidance in 2024, we’ve got somewhere around a 4% inflation factor on 2024 costs.

Lawson Winder: Okay. And that’s with the oil price assumption being down about 17% versus the 2023 assumption?

Andrea Freeborough: Our oil price assumption is, I think, 85% for 2024.

Lawson Winder: Okay. Got it. I also wanted to revisit the CapEx question just a little bit, to think about how to bridge the gap from $850 million to $1 billion in 2025, so that $150 million. And then, how to bridge that $350 million gap from $650 million, to $1 billion in 2026. So in 2025, would that be Phase X that, would be bridging that gap? And then that additional $350 million in 2025, which project should we think about spending, bridging that gap?

Claude Schimper: Obviously, these are all in study phase, keeping in mind. But the Phase X is something where the CapEx there is essentially just continuation of mining. So that is one that would be an earlier sequencing, and we could be spending money on that in 2025. Curlew, the same thing, that’s somewhere we could be spending some money in 2025 and into 2026. GBR, we will continue to spend money on CapEx in a few different areas before initiating the main project. And the La Coipa extensions as well, by 2026, we could be spending money there.

Lawson Winder: Okay. That’s very helpful. And then if I could just revisit the seasonality question on the guidance, just particularly for Brazil, would you be comfortable providing a breakdown in terms of like percentage of the 510,000 ounces in H1 versus what percent you’d expect in H2 for Paracatu?

Andrea Freeborough: Well, we’re getting that, Lawson, just to correct what I said earlier, if our oil price assumption is actually $75 in our guidance.

Lawson Winder: Okay. Okay. Thanks for doing that. Thanks for correcting that. That’s what I thought. So that would be down 17% from the 90 last year. But obviously, we realized the price was only $77 or $78 last year. So virtually, oil price assumption is in line versus last year, just slightly off, and then 4% inflation?

Will Dunford: So Lawson, to answer your Paracatu breakdown, it’s about 45% in the first half of the year and 55% in the back end. Obviously, the last quarter is the one where we really bang it out in Brazil. First one, we have the rainy season, and then where we are in the pit this year, it’s just a little bit beyond in the first half.

Lawson Winder: Okay. Thank you all very much.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Anita Soni from CIBC. Please go ahead.

Anita Soni: Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. And most of them have been asked and answered. But one question I still did have, I just want to confirm, the new material that was added in Dixie on the underground, by my calculations, it was a little north of 6 grand per ton. Is that correct?

Paul Rollinson: That is correct, yes.

Anita Soni: Okay. And that was all underground, right?

Paul Rollinson: Yes, the emissions were overwhelmingly underground.

Anita Soni: Right. And then secondly, a little bit more on the capital number. I know in 2025, you should stop spending really on Fort Knox with the, sorry, with Manh Choh coming into production. I kind of don’t understand, what would come in there to fill that gap. So is there, can you just remind me which of the projects that, could be turned on in 2025?

Will Dunford: In 2025, we will also still be spending on Phase S. We’ll be finishing up the stripping there. And then the Round Mountain underground, again, if we make a decision to move forward with that, we will just keep going with development. So we could be spending meaningful dollars on underground development in that year. And the Curlew extension, if we see what we want to see in these underground extensions, we will start to spend on infrastructure there.

Anita Soni: Okay. So just to understand, I mean, right now you’ve got a production profile that’s 2.1 and then 2 flat really for the next couple of years for sure. And obviously, with additional projects, can maintain the 2 million ounces. But the CapEx numbers that you have right now that have $1 billion, $850 million and then $650 million that fully funds the 2 billion. Anything to improve over and above that, is to extend mine life beyond 2026. Is that correct?

Paul Rollinson: That’s right. That supports the 2 million guidance capital that we’ve put out. As the capital comes up, it will extend the 2 million beyond guidance.

Will Dunford: Both Curlew and Round Mountain have potential to start contributing in 2027. I think what we see in the outcomes of the studies.

Anita Soni: Okay. All right. And then just another quick one that I was wondering about at Tasiast, sorry, the costs are coming in pretty well. Can you just talk about the inflationary pressures that you’re seeing? Are they lower than the rest of the regions? And is there more inflation you’re seeing in sort of U.S. and Chile? I guess – the question is the breakout of inflationary pressures by region?

Andrea Freeborough: I can start sort of at a high level. I think, as I said, we’re seeing the biggest increases continuing on labor and contractors. And probably the highest is in South America, so primarily Brazil. And then Alaska would be second, along with Nevada. So I think it’s fair to say that Tasiast is kind of on the lower end in terms of inflation.

Anita Soni: Okay. Right. And then my more detailed questions about the US Ops, I’ll take offline with Chris. Thanks

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jackie Przybylowski from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jackie Przybylowski: Thanks very much for taking my question. And I know this has been sort of answered, but I just wanted to circle back on Great Bear. It sounds like you’ve got some really good opportunity here, at the LP zone with this AEX decline that you’re putting in. And I was wondering, if you could maybe talk a little bit about, as you’re working on the studies there, the technical studies, could you maybe talk about your thinking about potential to expand the footprint of Great Bear? Or are you thinking – the size that you’ve mentioned in the past is already fully optimized, even if there’s more to discover there?

Will Dunford: We’re still kind of centered around that 10,000 ton per day margins for now, in terms of total processing capacity, at least. We’re still doing final design engineering around a variety of things, from the overall footprint perspective. But what we’re seeing is, what we were hoping to see, which is extensions that indicate that this could be a long life underground mine. But it’s not pushing us to drive that throughput higher.

Jackie Przybylowski: Okay. That’s helpful. So, the way to think about it, with future exploration success at this point is, maybe it offsets grade or adds to life of mine. Okay. No, that’s helpful. Thank you. Thank you.

Will Dunford: Yes, it adds to life of mine. It adds to grade profile. It’s just off at a significant production volume. So, all good.

Jackie Przybylowski: Thank you very much.

Operator: And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn it back to management for closing remarks.

Paul Rollinson: Thank you, operator. Thanks, everyone, for joining us. And we’ll hope to catch up with you in-person in the coming weeks. Thank you.

Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. And you may now disconnect.

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