Keysight Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:KEYS) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Chris Snyder: I just kind of want to follow up on those comments on the market demand commentary. I mean orders were — I think you said steady each month of the quarter and up 9% year-on-year. So what should we make of the commentary that maybe customers are being a bit more cautious because, Satish, you just kind of ramp through all the different subsegments and businesses. And it seems like everything is going quite strong. Should we take this as maybe an indicator that fiscal Q1 orders are easing a bit? And ultimately, does this push the growth profile back to that 4% to 6% normalized range? Or should it sink below that?

Mark Wallace: Chris, this is Mark. I’ll take that and add a little bit more detail here. So as Satish said, our order level was steady throughout the quarter. So, we’re watching this, right, because if customers are taking more time to make decisions, you would look for orders to slow down. They did not. As a matter of fact, October was very strong. It was a record October for us in terms of orders. So that’s good. You’ve heard us talk about before the addition of new customers. We’ve added about 450 this quarter again for nearly 2,000 new customers across the whole year. So that creates more diversity and durability to our business, and I see that paying off. Our top 20 customers in the quarter were up strong double digits as well.

So, all of that continues to translate to the fact that we did not see an impact to our business because of the customers taking more time. And I think it also has to do with the fact that we are so biased toward R&D and design optimization. And as we’ve seen through other waves in the recent term where market slowed, the advanced technology development continues. So that’s what we see, but we look around and we do see some macro uncertainty. And from my seat, what I see in terms of order or in terms of customer activities is very active customers. Our six-month funnel continues to grow, but customers are taking more time to make ultimate CapEx decisions.

Neil Dougherty: Yes. And this is Neil. I just give you a little bit maybe more quantification of the situation going into Q1. So while we don’t guide orders, I would point out that we have a bit of a difficult compare here in the first quarter. A year ago, in Q1, that was the first time in Keysight’s history that we’d ever posted order growth moving from the end of Q4 into the first quarter of the new fiscal year. So we’ve got a tough compare from that perspective. In addition, as you all know, the U.S. dollar began to strengthen pretty significantly in the back half of this year. We estimate the FX headwind in our first quarter to be a full five percentage points. And so we’ve got a five-point FX headwind. And we estimate another two to three points of headwind from the recent increase in China trade restrictions as well as the loss of our Russia business, which happened in the second quarter of last year.

So those things combined give us a seven- to eight-point headwind just coming out of the gate here as we enter the first quarter.

Chris Snyder: Appreciate that. And on the commentary that customers are taking longer to order, maybe they’re ordering slower, how do you separate kind of the supply chain element of that from the demand element? Because if supply chains are generally moving in the right direction, I think that maybe customers will not kind of order with the same lead times or urgency that we saw last year.