KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Chris Gorman: Yes. So, it’s really a continuation of the investment, John, that we’ve been making. And the point I was making there was we’re not going to cease to invest as we take out costs. And when we were at Investor Day a year ago, we talked about growing our consumers by 20% by 2025 focusing really on our growth markets, and we’re having a lot of success with our younger customers, and we’re going to continue to focus both products and marketing in that regard. Also, we talked about hiring bankers. We talked about — we think we have these unique platforms that are under leveraged, and we talked about increasing our banker population by 25% by 2025. Admittedly, last year, we tapered off in the back half of the year. The market was obviously overheated.

And also, frankly, we saw the downturn coming in the economy. We think will be — it will be a very good environment to recruit and successfully bring people onto the platform going forward. And then lastly, it was Laurel Road and the commitment we made around Laurel Road, where we’ve continued to invest is that we were going to grow our members from 50,000 to 250,000. This year, we successfully grew by 30% and we’ve made a lot of investments expanding to nurses having a full product line there, buying GradFin, being a leader in public service loan forgiveness. We’re also going to get into the income-based forgiveness gain as well. So, those are the three areas. And so, it wasn’t really new investments so much. It’s a continuation of the investments we’ve made in critical areas of the business including around things like continuing to migrate to the cloud and investing in digital.

John Pancari: Okay, Chris. No, that helps clarify that. I appreciate it. And that’s it for me. And best of luck to you, Don.

Don Kimble: Thank you so much.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Manan Gosalia from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Manan Gosalia: Can you give us some more color on the reserve build this quarter? To your point, your NCO guide for €˜23 is well below your long-term targets. So, I guess, what changed in the macro environment that necessitated the reserve build? And I guess, is this you being a lot more conservative? And should we expect the reserve ratio to stabilize from here, or could there be factors that drive that reserve ratio higher?

Chris Gorman: Sure, Manan. First of all, thank you for your question. And you’re right. Despite the fact that we have really good credit metrics, we did, in fact, build the reserve. And so, if you kind of step back for a second, kind of look at the macro perspective, we believe the economy is clearly slowing. We think the probability of a recession has increased from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of last year. Our base case, by the way, is that there will be a mild recession. There’s really three drivers of the CECL reserve. The first is the macro view, which I just described, which is the driver for us. The second is loan growth, and we obviously have some loan growth. The third is really idiosyncratic risks, specific portfolio, specific credit.

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