KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 2 of 11

What I would say that doesn’t include is the relative betas or funding costs that go with that. But I just want to touch on that because, again, I think it’s important to understand. If you look at the $720 million, which is equivalent to the $900 million that we quote this quarter, that was consistent with a different rate environment, where rates were coming down at the end of the quarter or the end of the year and we would have had a muted — slightly muted impact on the NII pickup. As I just said, rates, we think, are going to be higher now. The betas will be higher. But commensurately, the pickup in those swaps and treasuries has gone from $720 million to $900 million. So those are going to move in sync. Slide 9 is intended to be, again, isolated to the treasuries and swaps just to make sure we’re giving you as much disclosure on those as we can.

Scott Siefers: Okay. That’s extraordinarily helpful color. So I appreciate that. And I don’t want to put words in your mouth, but in the aggregate, would your expectation be that NII ends up sort of bottoming around end of this year, maybe early next year, but then does see a more visible inflection back up as sort of the pricing dynamics weighing on funding costs, but you then start to get a more material and visible benefit from the swap and treasury maturities. Is that the best way to think about it?

Clark Khayat: Yeah, I think that was very well stated.

Scott Siefers: Okay. All right. Perfect. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

Clark Khayat: Yeah. Thanks, Scott.

Operator: We’ll go next to the line of Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala: Just wanted to follow-up, I think, on the same line of questioning that Scott around NII. So appreciate the lift from swaps and treasuries. I think the concern when you talk to investors has been the valley before we get to that point has kept getting deeper throughout the year. When we look at this guidance for the back half, I think, Clark, you mentioned implies negative 12% year-over-year. Give us a sense of just a level of confidence in that guidance, that this is it, absent any big change in the interest rate backdrop, how good do you feel and the level of visibility that you have? And I appreciate it’s been tough for the entire industry to handicap this, but any color you can provide would be helpful.

A – Clark Khayat: Sure. So look, I think the biggest change as we’ve gone through the year has been the rate level. So given your commentary on sort of relatively stable rates, I think we feel very good about the trajectory we’re sharing here. And I would say, overall, our deposit betas, I feel like, are very much in line with the peer group. We did some catching up because we outperformed last year, but I feel like that’s very consistent with what’s happening in the industry, and we just happen to have these specific headwinds right now on swaps and treasuries. But again, as those come off, we think we’re prepared to get the benefit of that. So I would say that in the expected rate environment, our confidence would be good.

Ebrahim Poonawala: Got it. And second question, I think Chris talked about 2 things. One is focus on expenses. I see the guidance for flat expenses for the back half. Give us a sense, if there’s a bigger opportunity around flexing expense leverage as we move into back half, and as at least the Street thinks about 2024 EPS and also around any proactive RWA actions. I think you mentioned getting rid of or exiting nonstrategic relationships. How impactful could that be for capital?

Page 2 of 11