Kellogg Company (NYSE:K) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Amit Banati: Yeah. So just a couple of further builds, right? I think the one thing I’d point out is in quarter two, the inventory lap was the most pronounced. So I think that was most pronounced in this quarter. And so I think going forward, that will be lesser of an impact. I think from a rest of the year, we continue to focus decelerating sales growth. That’s what’s been implied. That’s what’s implied in our guidance. And it’s a couple of things that’s driving that. One is, we obviously start lapping last year’s substantial revenue growth management actions, which were that much higher in the second half. And we continue to prudently assume higher elasticities for the rest of the year.

Cody Ross: Great. Thank you and I just want to follow up on that question, and you may have alluded to it already in your answer to my last question. But you ship below consumption or at least Nielsen consumption in North America this quarter. What drove that? Was that all lapping the serial over shipment last year of replenishment, I should say? And are you seeing any de-stocking from retailers as they try to manage their working capital. And then I’ll pass it on.

Steve Cahillane: Yes, I’d say a good bit due to the replenishment and we’re potentially seeing some retailer de-stocking. It’s really hard to pin down when you’re talking about a quarter. And we see that as a good thing, Cody. Obviously, service levels for the last year plus have been below normal levels, which required safety stock across the supply chain. As we get to service levels back above 95%, you’d see a renewed confidence, a growing confidence at retail and therefore, not needing to carry the same days of supply. And again, we don’t see that as a negative. And we see, as we said, from a go-forward perspective, lots of confidence in our plans, which has led to us raising our guidance for the top line slightly.

Cody Ross: Thank you. Looking forward to next week.

Steve Cahillane: See you next week.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the David Palmer of Evercore. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

David Palmer: Thanks. Good morning. I think you said gross margins should be up 50 basis points year-over-year for the full year. I think I heard that right. If that’s right, that implies something like a 30-plus basis point gross margin decline in the second half. What are some of the puts and takes we should be thinking about for gross margin and maybe a change in trend? And I have a quick follow-up.

Amit Banati: Yeah. So I wouldn’t say there’s a change in trend. I think we had always said gross margin would be up during the year. I think based on — it’s coming in faster than we expected, predominantly driven by bottlenecks and shortages receding faster than what we had thought. So I think the supply chain is performing really well. Are we seeing that in cost, we’re seeing that in service levels. We’d expect that trend to continue. And I think when you kind of put it all together, our forecast right now is that we should be up about 50 basis points for the year.

David Palmer: And then I know from your filing, North America cereal adjusted gross margin was about 26% in the first quarter. I don’t know, if it’s too early for you to have that for the second quarter. But I’m just wondering, I know obviously, we’ll be talking more next week, but how are you thinking about gross margin potential for that business? I would have thought a large-scale cereal business like yours, would be just naturally living at a much higher gross margin level. Just any thoughts? And of course, we’ll see you next week. Thank you.

Amit Banati: Yeah. So I think we continue to recover both share and margin as that business recovers from the fire in strike through the cycle of replenishing inventory and full commercial execution. So that recovery is well underway, both from our top line share as well as a margin standpoint. And I think the go forward, we’ll obviously discuss fully next week.

Steve Cahillane: Stay tuned for an exciting event next week, David.

David Palmer: Thank you.