KB Home (NYSE:KBH) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jeffrey Mezger: Steve, I can start. First, thanks for the recognition on our — the job we did in Q4. We have over the last five years or six years, we’ve gone through kind of a whipsaw. We came out with returns-focused growth we were working on lifting in our margins. So we kept our absorptions at four until we got our margins higher than our margins are higher and we keep using the term, optimize the asset and every community is a different story, but I would expect that it’s probably around five on average. As we looked at 2023, we were soft coming into the year and that picked up. Then it softened again later in the year. So we fully expect our absorptions in 2024 will be higher than 2023 for the year. So, I would think five a month market runs, we could go higher than that, but it’s on per community analysis, how many last we have left is easily replaceable. How do you run it, how big is the community, I think five is probably a good number.

Stephen Kim: All right. That’s really helpful. I appreciate that. And then your commentary about the margins and the incentives and all that. You’ve talked about the fact that the first five weeks here have gotten off to a good start. And the way you’re talking about the incentives or the concessions it sounds like you haven’t really had not really reduced those concessions yet and you think you may as you go forward. Can you help us understand what it is that you think would be the trigger for reducing incentives? Would it be in fact absorptions let’s say any in the late 1Q, early 2Q kind of getting into that five threshold in absorptions or would it be something else?

Jeffrey Mezger: Yes, Rob, do you want to take that you can walk through, what we’re doing and where we’re trying to get to?

Robert McGibney: Yes, so Steve, you’re right, we haven’t really done anything different than what we were doing in Q3 as far as concessions that we were offering. Obviously, you heard from the prepared remarks, we’ve seen a big uptick in sales. So that is how we’re going to manage it, we always talk about optimizing each asset, balancing base price and margin, and if we — as we go through Q1 or into Q2 when we start to see that at a community level get above what we think is optimal for that we’re going to, we’re first going to reduce those incentives, take it to price, we’re going to be looking to lift margins on all those communities, where we’re seeing that happen, and we’re encouraged early by what we’re seeing here in the first part of Q1. So that seems pretty realistic for us.

Operator: Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Alan Ratner with Zelman and Associates. Please proceed with your question.

Alan Ratner: Hey guys, Happy New Year. good afternoon, and thanks for all the great detail as always. Yes, my first question in a similar vein on the incentives, it doesn’t sound like you really got kind of played that incentive game in the fourth quarter and I think that makes a lot of sense given your sales strategy and whatnot, but clearly, other builders did, which I think is now perhaps maybe why orders were a bit lighter than you were expecting coming into the quarter. We have seen, maybe more of the spec builders begin to dial back those incentives that they were offering into year-end. And if so any idea kind of how much net pricing has moved the year-to-date from some of your competitors that did play that discounting game?

Jeffrey Mezger: Robert, it’s also for you.

Robert McGibney: Yes, I really haven’t. I mean we’re seeing some change in behavior, it’s kind of hard to track what’s going on with individual builders and they’ll have certain deal of the day, deal of the week type things, but we do expect to see incentives overall come down as we move forward, just based on the uptick in demand that we’ve seen. We did do a little more in Q3, especially towards Q4 or towards the beginning to generate some additional net orders but as rates got to that 8% kind of threshold we saw buyers really pull back and it just didn’t seem prudent to chase sales with that going on in the market. We continue to start homes and we’re happy as we look back on it now as that’s the approach that we took because we’re seeing better sales obviously. We didn’t think the margins and sales are really picking up. So that’s been our approach.

Alan Ratner: Got it, okay, makes sense. Maybe a little bit early, but more the expectation into the spring, but that should come down. Second question on the margin guide and Jeff I appreciate kind of the commentary there. I’m just curious what your underlying assumptions are on costs because obviously, lumber was a big tailwind in 2023 versus 2022, you kind of mentioned some of the moving pieces there. I would imagine beginning of the year is kind of typically when you start to get some price increase announcements from your trades and they’re probably seeing and hearing the same things you guys are as far as lower rates. So has that involved in the suppliers, the trades to try to push the envelope a little bit on cost yet or are they still kind of content with the current level then what’s your expectation there for the year?