Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Jumia Technologies AG on Hunterbrook’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on JMIA. Jumia Technologies AG’s share was trading at $13.78 as of January 29th.

Jumia Technologies AG operates an e-commerce platform in West Africa, North Africa, East and South Africa, Europe, the United Arab Emirates, and internationally.  JMIA’s Black Friday surge in Lagos offered a vivid glimpse of an e-commerce company fighting its way back from the brink. Inside its sprawling Isolo warehouse, thousands of workers pushed through a 24-hour cycle of packing, sorting, and shipping, while pickup stations across the city buzzed with customers chasing discounts. That urgency marks more than a shopping holiday—it reflects the rebirth of a business many once wrote off.

After years of losses, remote leadership, and a failed attempt to transplant a Western e-commerce model onto African infrastructure, Jumia’s stock collapsed more than 95% from its peak. But a dramatic overhaul beginning in 2022—anchored by CEO Francis Dufay’s locally rooted strategy—has reshaped the company. Dufay shut down Dubai operations, cut costs, killed unprofitable experiments like Jumia Food, and rebuilt the platform around affordability, pickup stations, and trust.

The impact is striking. Cost per order has fallen sharply, marketing spend is down, and a physical network of 1,500+ pickup points has become both a logistics engine and a trust moat in markets wary of prepayment and product quality. That foundation appears to be helping Jumia fend off Chinese giants Temu and Shein, whose cross-border models face steep challenges in payments, returns, and delivery speed.

With dedicated sourcing in China, thousands of new sellers, and improving macro conditions across Africa—from easing currency volatility to soaring digital adoption—Jumia is once again growing orders and GMV. Now valued around $1.3 billion, the company projects profitability by 2027 and believes it is positioned to become a Mercado Libre–style regional champion. Black Friday may be the clearest proof yet that its turnaround is taking hold.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) by TyNads in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s disciplined execution, core-market focus, and improving unit economics. The company’s stock price has appreciated over 474.16% since our coverage as its turnaround strategy began to play out. The thesis still stands as execution remains strong. Hunterbrook shares an identical view but emphasizes Black Friday momentum and on-ground progress.

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Disclosure: None.