JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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And that is a little bit of a straight-up across-the-board tax on everything. It’s kind of hard to optimize your way out of that, with the exception, obviously, of the fact that you can simply increase price, assuming you have pricing power, but that’s obviously not what we want and that’s what we sort of mean by impacts on the real economy. So there are details, there is a lot of the FRTB stuff, we can get way into the weeds there within the markets business and we do have a good track-record of adjusting and optimizing. But this time around, it may be a more fundamental set of questions around business mix as opposed to the ability to sort of optimizing in a very technical way.

John McDonald: Okay, that’s helpful. And with a number of years for this to phase-in and you generating capital at a high level, even if the ROTCE comes down a bit. How should we think about your pace of building capital for these new changes versus doing your everyday course of investing and buybacks and things like that over the next couple of years?

Jeremy Barnum: Yes. I mean, I guess I’m sort of tempted to give you our standard capital hierarchy here. I mean, we’re not going to stack back investments, right, that won’t come as a surprise to you. Generally speaking, we’re always going to try to comply with new requirements early. So, when we know the requirements, I mean when we have visibility, obviously given how much organic capital we’re generating right now, whatever the answer winds up being, it will be pretty easy to comply, narrowly speaking. But that’s not the same as saying that there won’t be consequences to returns or to pricing. And if for whatever reason, things aren’t exactly as we’re anticipating, I don’t see us sacrificing investments that we see are strategically critical in order to comply with higher capital requirements ahead of the formal timing or whatever.

John McDonald: Okay, and there is some room for buybacks?

Jeremy Barnum: Unlikely, obviously, that would be an unlikely outcome.

John McDonald: Okay, thank you.

Jeremy Barnum: Sorry, John, go ahead. Did you have a follow-up?

John McDonald: Yes. No, just do buybacks play a role in the next couple of years, strategically, just episodically you buyback?

Jeremy Barnum: I mean, capital hierarchy again, right. In the end, when we have nothing else to do with the money, we’ll do buybacks and we’ve talked about the $12 billion for this year. Obviously, lot of new moving parts there, although all else equal, given what we’ve done so far, that’s still probably a reasonable number for the full year. But, yes, that’s always going to be at the end of the list, but, yes.

John McDonald: Got it. Okay, thank you.

Operator: Next we’ll go to the line of Ken Usdin from Jefferies. You may proceed.

Ken Usdin: Well, thanks, good morning. I just wanted to ask a little bit about, how you’re feeling about the trade-off between like the commercial economy and what might come through in terms of future loan growth versus kind of green shoots that people are talking about in the investment banking pipeline, and just how it feels in terms of like reopening of markets and the trade-off between getting similar to those fees in versus what’s happening on the loan demand side. Thanks.

Jeremy Barnum: Sure. A good question, Ken. So I think in terms of investment banking end markets, yes, better-than-expected last month. Well we talked about green shoots, especially in capital markets generally still definitely some headwinds in M&A, lower amounts activity, some regulatory headwinds there. So we’ll see — I think it’s a little too early to call a trend there based on recent results, but we’ll see. In terms of the broader economy and loan growth expectations. Generally, we do still expect reasonably robust card loan growth. But away from that, for a variety of different reasons at different products, whether it’d be mortgage or C&I, after revolver normalization, and especially if we see a little bit of a cooling off of the economy, I would expect loan demand to be relatively modest there.

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