Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (NYSE:JLL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (NYSE:JLL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript February 28, 2023

Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Q4 2022 Jones Lang LaSalle Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Jacquetta. I will be your moderator for today’s call. I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Scott Einberger, with JLL. Scott, please go ahead.

Scott Einberger: Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call for Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings release, along with a slide presentation and Excel file intended to supplement our prepared remarks. These materials are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Please visit ir.jll.com. During the call and in our slide presentation and accompanying tax file, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide useful information for investors. We include reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP in our earnings release and slide presentation. As a reminder, today’s call is being webcast live and recorded.

A transcript and recording of this conference call will be posted to our website. Any statements made about future results and performance, plans, expectations and objectives are forward-looking statements. Actual results and performance may differ from those forward-looking statements as a result of factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2021 and December 31, 2022, and in other reports filed with the SEC. The company disclaims any undertaking to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Christian Ulbrich, our President and Chief Executive Officer; for opening remarks.

Christian Ulbrich: Thank you, Scott. Hello, and thank you all for joining our fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Before we begin today’s call, I would like to take a moment to express our sympathy to the people of Turkey and Syria who have been impacted by multiple earthquakes. We are focused on supporting our people, clients and suppliers in the region. Over the past 12 months, rising interest rates, currency headwinds and geopolitical events have continued to put downward pressure on the macroeconomic environment. For real estate markets, a rapid rise in interest rates has led to a slowdown in investment sales activity. According to JLL Research, global commercial real estate investments totaled $203 billion in the fourth quarter, a year-over-year decline of 56% with ask spreads across asset classes remain wider than normal and reflects the need for continued price discovery to occur.

A lack of transactions is limiting liquidity in some markets, with investors expected to remain patient as prices settle, at which point liquidity will improve. Dry powder is at near record levels with $386 billion sitting on the sidelines, down slightly from the end of 2021. We expect this dry powder to be deployed once interest rates stabilize and bid-ask spreads normalize. The macroeconomic pressures are also being felt in the global office leasing market, while volume was down 19% year-over-year in the fourth quarter according to JLL Research. Tenants are delaying decisions or taking short-term actions in light of the macroeconomic uncertainty. Global office vacancy rates picked up modestly to 14.9% in the fourth quarter. In most markets, high-quality premium assets continued to significantly outperform the rest of the market as occupiers focus on upgrading space.

In the industrial space, occupiers are taking a more cautious approach with demand slowing across all 3 regions in the fourth quarter. However, market fundamentals remained strong in the industrial space with low vacancy rates and healthy rental growth in many markets. The retail and hotel sectors outperformed on a relative basis in the fourth quarter. Retail demand picked up in the U.S. after a slow third quarter. And in Asia Pacific, retail continues to perform well in many major markets. Hotels continued the recovery that began early in 2022 as consumer spending on travel persists. JLL’s financial results for the fourth quarter reflect the points I just discussed. We saw a decline in our investment sales business as inflation and rising interest rates continued to slow the transaction market.

Our leasing business also saw a slowdown both in volume and average deal size. As we have spoken about in the past, the magnitude of a slowdown is more pronounced in our investment sales business than in our leasing business as our leasing business has a more resilient revenue base. This dynamic is reflected in our fourth quarter results. Both investment sales and leasing were lapping record results from the fourth quarter of 2021, impacting the year-over-year decline on a percentage basis. In contrast, our more resilient business lines such as property management, workplace management, valuation advisory, loan servicing, and JLL Technologies, in total delivered positive fee revenue growth during the quarter despite the economic headwinds. We have worked hard over the last decade to diversify our business lines and add more resilient revenue streams to our portfolio.

Finally, LaSalle grew advisory fee revenue during the quarter, highlighting the annuity-like nature of this revenue stream. We remain focused on our adjusted EBITDA margin, and we’ll continue to make targeted investments to drive future growth. In addition, we have taken steps to drive operational efficiencies across our business and reduce our cost base. The cost actions we have taken to date occurred across business segments and have been focused on nonrevenue-generating growth. Our change to a segment reporting structure has allowed us to quickly identify and take action to remove these costs. As a result of these actions, we have removed approximately $140 million of cost on an annualized basis. Some of the cost actions have an immediate impact, while others take time to materialize.

Based on the timing of these actions, we expect to realize $125 million of the cost savings in 2023. We have carefully balanced the need to reduce our costs without impacting our ability to immediately return to growth mode as conditions improved and will continue to identify further opportunities to drive efficiencies in 2023. I will now turn the call over to Karen, who will provide more detail on our results for the quarter.

Karen Brennan: Thank you, Christian. Before I begin, a reminder that variances are against the prior year period in local currency, unless otherwise noted. 2022 was a tale of two halves similar to what we experienced in 2021 but in reverse. Our strong performance in the first half of 2022 was offset by headwinds in the second half, particularly the fourth quarter, which saw a rapid slowdown in investment sales and leasing volumes. Despite the industry-wide slowdown, we delivered solid full year fee revenue growth and continue to make progress in strengthening our platform for long-term value creation. Using our strong investment-grade balance sheet, we returned about $600 million of capital to shareholders via share repurchases over the course of the year while also making incremental investments in our people and platform.

I’ll expand on these topics later in my remarks. For the full year, consolidated fee revenue rose 7% to $8.3 billion. Our more resilient business lines collectively grew 16%, including 14% organic growth. Transaction-oriented fee revenue grew 4%, led by 7% growth in leasing. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year declined 14% to $1.2 billion, with 8% of the decline from lower equity earnings. The full year adjusted EBITDA margin declined 370 basis points to 15.0%, with fee revenue growth more than offset by approximately 190 basis points from lower equity earnings, 140 basis points from higher travel, entertainment and marketing expenses, 80 basis points from incremental investment in our people and platform, and 30 basis points from our changes to commission structures within Capital Markets.

Adjusted EPS of $15.71 declined 17%, driven by higher interest and amortization expenses on top of the lower adjusted EBITDA, partially offset by a 5% reduction in the average share count. Shifting to the fourth quarter performance. Fee revenue declined 16% over a record fourth quarter 2021. The macroeconomic factors that Christian described drove a 40% decline in Investment Sales, Debt and Equity Advisory fee revenue and an 18% decline in Leasing. In contrast, our resilient business lines collectively grew 12% with notable strength in our Workplace Management business line within Work Dynamics as well as in JLL Technologies and in LaSalle Advisory fees. Adjusted EBITDA fell 42% from the prior year quarter to $339 million, mostly due to a $124 million adverse swing in equity earnings.

Our adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.5% is down 710 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2021, a period which generated the highest quarterly margin in over 15 years. Lower equity earnings contributed approximately 550 basis points to the margin decline. Additional drivers of the decrease included lower transaction-based fee revenue and higher fixed compensation expense largely tied to investments to drive future growth over the past several quarters, partially offset by lower performance-based incentive compensation. Moving to a detailed review of operating performance by segment, beginning with Markets Advisory. Fourth quarter leasing fee revenue declined 18%, following a 68% growth rate in the prior year quarter. As macro conditions varied across regions, so too did our leasing fee revenue declines across geographies, with the Americas down 20%, Asia Pacific down 16%, and EMEA down 10%, all in comparison to strong growth rates in the prior year quarter.

On a global basis, all primary asset classes saw transaction volume decline, along with lower average deal size, particularly in the office sector. Of note, large-scale office leases in the U.S. saw a pronounced decline. Our fourth quarter office sector fee revenue fell 17%, though compared favorably with a 19% contraction in global office leasing volume according to JLL Research. In the industrial sector, fee revenue growth declined 21%, and moved directionally consistent with expectations given the tight supply and significant growth seen over the past several years. This compares favorably with a 26% decrease in global industrial market activity from a year ago according to JLL Research. As Christian described, we’re seeing more sustained leasing demand for high-quality assets despite softer demand more broadly.

In addition, leasing activity varies by sector and geography. For instance, our gross U.S. leasing pipeline is larger from this time a year ago, with comparatively stronger growth in industrial and retail versus the office sector. While the gross leasing pipeline provides cautious optimism for the full year 2023, near-term activity is likely to be subdued, especially when comparing to the strength we saw in the first half of 2022. Also within Markets Advisory, Property Management fee revenue for the fourth quarter grew 8%, primarily organic and generally consistent with a full year growth rate of 9%, which speaks to the resiliency of the business line. I do note that at the end of 2022, we disposed of a business that accounted for nearly $23 million of the advisory and consulting fee revenue annually.

Its contribution to adjusted EBITDA was immaterial. The Markets Advisory fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin declined 230 basis points from a year ago to 17.4%, primarily due to lower leasing fee revenue investments and talent to match growth in our business over the past year and incremental T&E and marketing expenses. Despite full year fee revenue growth of 8% within Markets Advisory, the adjusted EBITDA margin declined 110 basis points to 16.0% on the same factors impacting the movement in the quarter as well as investments in our technology platform. Shifting to our Capital Markets segment. The market conditions Christian described were a key factor and a 34% decline in segment fee revenue for the fourth quarter. I note the contraction was off a fourth quarter 2021 growth rate of 53%.

Indicative of the strength and breadth of our global capital markets platform, JLL’s global investment sales fee revenue decline of 45% compared favorably to the 56% fall in global deal volume Christian referenced. For perspective, the fourth quarter market volume decline was the sharpest since the fourth quarter of 2008, and in terms of dollars was the lowest overall market volume in fourth quarter 2011. Fee revenue from U.S. investment sales fell about 61%, slightly better than the 62% decline in U.S. market volumes according to JLL Research. Valuation Advisory fee revenue, which is more resilient than Investment Sales, Debt and Equity Advisory, grew 3% in the fourth quarter. Growth was broad-based across regions and sectors. Our loan servicing fee revenue fell 10% on approximately $7 million of lower prepayment fees, which more than offset about 8% of ordinary services fees.

Our loan servicing portfolio increased 2%, driven largely by Fannie Mae originations. The fourth quarter Capital Markets adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 440 basis points from a year ago to 19.3% on lower fee revenue, higher commission expense from the change in our compensation mix to more commissions from cash bonus, higher T&E expense, an increase in our multifamily loan reserve, and incremental investment in headcount to drive future growth over the past several quarters. For the full year, with Capital Markets fee revenue flat, the adjusted EBITDA margin fell 340 basis points to 18.2%, driven primarily by the same expense factors as well as incremental investments in technology. Looking ahead, the global capital markets investment sales debt and equity advisory pipeline is consistent with this time last year as modest growth in the Americas and Asia Pacific is offset by a slight decline in EMEA.

The amount and pace of revenue growth through the year will be heavily influenced by the factors impacting deal timing and closing rates that Christian described. I also remind you of the tougher growth comparisons for the first half of the year. Moving next to Work Dynamics. Fourth quarter fee revenue grew 11% with double-digit growth across our annuity and transactional revenue streams within the segment. Client wins and global contract extensions in prior periods led to 19% fee revenue growth in workplace management. Project management fee revenue grew 13%, propelled by improvement in the return-to-work trends. The slowdown in leasing activity adversely impacted portfolio services fee revenue growth in the quarter. The Work Dynamics fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 110 basis points from a year ago, driven by increased scale and cost management strategies enacted over the past year, partially offset by incremental investment in technology and people.

For the full year, large-scale client wins and global contract expansions in 2021 helped drive 15% Work Dynamics fee revenue growth. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 80 basis points to 11.6% in 2022. The drivers of the full year margin expansion were consistent with those in the quarter. The 2022 client wins and expansions within workplace management, which are indicative of future demand given contract lead time, exhibited solid growth, though they were more moderate in scale than the prior year. The project management pipeline is currently strong. However, growth trends are generally linked to leasing, albeit lagged. Therefore, the current moderation in overall leasing activity reduces certainty of pipeline conversion in the latter part of the year.

Turning to JLL Technologies. Fee revenue, inclusive of M&A increased 36% in the fourth quarter. Organic growth of 21% was driven largely by enterprise clients. Looking at the full year, fee revenue grew 47%, of which 23% was organic, driven by new customers and client expansions. As a reminder, JLL Technologies also influence its fee revenue across JLL through software that differentiates our services. Equity earnings in the quarter were driven by a handful of impairment or valuation declines, partially offset by more modest valuation increases and a few investments. An approximate $100 million adverse swing in equity earnings net of carried interest from the prior year period drove over 90% of the contraction in the JLL Technologies adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter.

The primary drivers of the full year adjusted EBITDA margin decline were consistent with the quarter. As for LaSalle, strong capital deployment and fair value increases over the past 12 months drove 3% growth in assets under management, which translated to a 16% rise in advisory fee revenue mostly within our core open-end funds. Equity earnings for the fourth quarter were $21 million lower than the prior year, driven by moderating asset valuations broadly, which are likely to be a headwind to near-term advisory fee revenue growth and incentive fee generation. The increase in advisory fee revenue and platform scale benefit were more than offset by the lower equity earnings and lower transaction and incentive fee revenue, resulting in a decline in LaSalle’s adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter.

For the year, LaSalle’s adjusted EBITDA declined 40% as lower equity earnings and incentive fee revenue more than offset a 17% increase in advisory fee revenue and platform scale benefit. The lower equity earnings and incentive fee revenue drove substantially all of the full year adjusted EBITDA margin contraction. Moving to free cash flow, which was below our expectation for the year. We generated $532 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, bringing the full year to an outflow of $6 million. The full year outflow was driven by: one, higher commission payments in 2022, reflecting greater payments in early 2022 for commissions earned from the strong performance in the prior year fourth quarter as well as incremental commissions this year attributable to the full year leasing growth and changes to the Capital Markets incentive compensation structure; two, higher bonus payouts this year tied to 2021 performance; three, higher cash tax payments related to timing and prior year profitability; and four, lower profitability in 2022.

Cash flow conversion is a high priority. And we remain focused on improving our working capital efficiency. Now for an update on our balance sheet and capital allocation. As of December 31, our reported net leverage of 1.0x is at the midpoint of our target range and up from 0.2x a year earlier, primarily due to share repurchases, incremental investments in our business and lower free cash flow. As a reminder, our leverage ratio typically peaks in the first part of the year. And we have a history of deleveraging quickly. Our liquidity totaled $2.6 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, including $2.1 billion of undrawn credit facility capacity. As previously indicated, we did not repurchase any shares in the fourth quarter. Our period-end share count was down about 5% from a year earlier as a result of our approximate $600 million of share repurchases over the course of the first of the year.

As we stated at our investor briefing in November, we are committed to resuming share repurchase activity in ’23. The amount of share repurchases will be dependent on the evolution of the market recovery and the performance of our business, particularly cash generation. Approximately $1.2 billion remained on our share repurchase authorization as of December 31, 2022. Along with share repurchases, reinvestment in our business to further strengthen the resiliency of our diversified platform and drive profitable long-term growth remains a top priority. Despite the sharper and shorter macroeconomic cycles, having a pronounced impact on our business in the last three years, we have demonstrated our ability to navigate the rapid changes in the business environment and continue to focus on balancing both short-term and long-term implications for our business growth and profitability.

With strong growth comparisons and the broader market environment in mind, we currently anticipate the softness we saw in our more transaction-oriented fee revenue to persist through the first half of the year. We continue to calibrate both our cost basis and investment priorities to further transform our platform, while also preparing for anticipated rebound in activity. As Christian noted, we’ve taken actions to respond to the near-term challenges and reduce our cost base. The approximately $140 million of run rate cost reduction actions to date reflect approximately 2.0% of our 2022 fee-based compensation and benefits and expenses. Inclusive of these cost actions and a minimal equity earnings assumption, we anticipate our full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin to be in the 14% to 16% range.

We have a track record of fee revenue growth meaningfully exceeding global GDP growth and healthy margin expansion over the long term. This is largely due to the investments in our people and platform along with our focus on anticipating our clients’ evolving needs, which position us to continue to drive stakeholder value. Christian, back to you.

Christian Ulbrich : Thank you, Karen. As we look forward to 2023, the economic outlook is still uncertain. While inflation rates are beginning to slow, many central banks have not reached the end of their tightening cycles. However, we are entering this slowdown from a position of strength with strong labor markets and corporate balance sheets in good shape. Overall, we expect capital markets activity to recover quickly compared to previous downturns and for the current slowdown to be relatively short. Interest rates are expected to stabilize in the coming months allowing for bid ask spreads to normalize in the current phase of price discovery to pass. These factors, when combined with the significant amount of available capital, paint an increasingly optimistic picture for the second half of 2023.

Clients continue to engage in conversations with JLL about current market conditions and are ready to transact when uncertainty abates. As the current period of uncertainty subsides, a higher-than-normal number of expiring leases will help boost office activity. high-growth sectors such as industrial, life sciences and data centers are likely to emerge from a temporary pause to strong demand. Today, you have heard how we have taken cost actions to manage our business through this slowdown and deliver on our margin targets for 2023 and beyond. We are focused on improving free cash flow and remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. Before I close, I would like to thank all our employees across the world for their commitment and hard work during the past year.

So we all would have liked 2022 to end on a more positive note. It was our second best year in adjusted EBITDA dollars and our third best year in adjusted EBITDA margin within the last 10 years. The efforts of our colleagues have made that possible and position JLL well to take advantage of the coming recovery in the commercial real estate market. We are, therefore, confident in achieving our 2025 financial targets of $10 billion to $11 billion of fee revenue and a 16% to 19% adjusted EBITDA margin. Operator, please explain the Q&A process.

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Q&A Session

Operator: The first question comes from the line of Michael Griffin with Citi.

Michael Griffin : Great. Christian, I wanted to expand on your comments just in the prepared remarks about the number of leases expiring in the near term, potentially boosting office activity. I mean is that a read-through of what you might think office leasing demand is going to be for ’23 and maybe that we get in car of ’24 just given the challenges the sector faces? And anything you could spend on there would be helpful.

Christian Ulbrich : Mike, listen, what we are seeing is that there’s still that trend continuing that the best companies are trying to offer their employees the best possible space in each market. They’re active in as a way to improve the return to offices and the well-being of their employees. And that in itself will be a driver of our office leasing business because we are very active in the Grade A space. And we should also not forget that this current recessionary environment, which we see predominantly in the Western world is not happening in Asia. The whole of Asia is back to the offices at a very normal level comparable to 2019 pre-pandemic. And the overall environment there is very strong. And so as you know, the Americas is slightly last on return to office.

EMEA sits in the middle and Asia is very strong. So overall, we are kind of cautiously optimistic that the leasing markets will pick up over the course of this year. But maybe Karen wants to provide a little bit more commentary.

Karen Brennan : Yes. We’re really seeing differences in our pipeline around the world and by property type. And one thing that’s really important to highlight is this flight to quality point that we keep bringing up over the last few quarters, particularly for buildings constructed since 2015. That’s the only category from an age perspective that is recording strong positive net absorption since the pandemic with the other categories and older buildings more than offsetting that amount.

Michael Griffin : And Karen, can you remind us how much of the leasing revenue is driven by office? I think you gave us the year-over-year decline in the prepared remarks. But just the percentage of that leasing revenue that might come from the office sector?

Karen Brennan : Yes, it’s between 50% and 60% roughly from a full year basis.

Michael Griffin : Great. And then just for my next question. You touched on kind of the external growth opportunities being selective, just given the current capital markets environment that we’re in for 2023. I mean, any sense if you were to execute on any opportunities of what business lines you’d like to expand on where maybe you see the most opportunity in?

Christian Ulbrich : Well, overall, we are very happy with the footprint we are having in the different business lines. There are always some tuck-in opportunities, but there’s nothing which we are really missing. And I want to put right at the start that we feel that pricing is still very high, given the environment. So we have been cautious around M&A for some time now, and we will continue to be over the course of this year and going forward. But — what we are seeing is that many of our clients have super ambitious ESG targets, and that will force them, if they are not moving their real estate space and move into more modern buildings, as Karen just described, they will have to significantly upgrade their spaces. And so generally speaking, one of the most interesting opportunities sits around that project and development services as we call that business line.

But again, we are very happy with our existing capacity. But if there’s something coming around the corner, we would certainly look at it.