Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz on Bullseye Investing’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on KSPI. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz’s share was trading at $73.72 as of October 10th. KSPI’s trailing P/E was 7.66 according to Yahoo Finance.

Is Kaspi.kz (KSPI) the Best Young Stock To Buy and Hold For 10 Years?

Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ: KSPI) is a leading fintech company in Kazakhstan, operating a widely adopted Super App through its Kaspi.kz consumer platform and Kaspi Pay merchant app. The company dominates Kazakhstan’s digital financial ecosystem, with nearly every adult holding a Kaspi account, and offers integrated services across payments, marketplace, and fintech, including digital payments, online loans, deposits, and e-commerce solutions.

This market dominance has created a strong moat, giving Kaspi pricing power, customer stickiness, and operating leverage, while its financial metrics are exceptionally strong, with a reported ROE of 67.7% and ROIC estimates above 40%, a cash-rich balance sheet, and robust projected EPS growth of 31% year-over-year through 2026.

The stock trades at a strikingly low 7x PE and 5.95x forward 2026 earnings, implying a potential mispricing given the company’s growth profile and entrenched market position. Kaspi is also expanding internationally, acquiring a controlling stake in Turkey’s Hepsiburada and Rabobank Turkey to replicate its super-app model and increase its total addressable market, presenting potential upside if execution succeeds.

However, significant risks temper the bullish case. The Kazakhstani tenge has been volatile, and currency devaluation can materially reduce dollar-denominated earnings, affecting returns for global investors. Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly Kazakhstan’s regulatory oversight of digital finance and its economic ties with Russia, introduces further risk.

The Turkish expansion, while promising, exposes Kaspi to a challenging regulatory environment and high inflation, limiting predictability. Additionally, market saturation in Kazakhstan constrains domestic growth, and recent allegations of misconduct, if validated, could harm reputation and invite regulatory scrutiny. While Kaspi exhibits extraordinary financial strength and dominant market share, these macroeconomic, geopolitical, and regulatory risks suggest caution, leading some investors to remain on the sidelines despite the apparent undervaluation.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) by Easy Trader in April 2025, which highlighted the company’s dominant fintech ecosystem in Kazakhstan, strong growth across payments, marketplace, and fintech segments, and exceptional profitability. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 22% since our coverage, reflecting geopolitical and regulatory headwinds. Bullseye Investing shares a similar thesis but emphasizes currency volatility and risks from Turkish expansion.

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 33 hedge fund portfolios held KSPI at the end of the second quarter which was 35 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of KSPI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than KSPI and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.