During the September 3 episode of Mad Money, a caller asked why Walmart Inc.’s (NASDAQ:WMT) stock has lagged behind Target despite widespread analyst opinions favoring Walmart. Here’s what Jim Cramer had to say:
Well, Walmart’s now down 3%. I want to buy Walmart. But Target, see, the new CEO came in and he just kind of energized the place. Cut prices on 10,000 items. That’s what they needed. They needed price cuts. The stores look absolutely terrific. Walmart’s just Walmart. And when you have one of the situations where it’s just a continually good company, no one gets excited about it. I don’t care. Buy some Walmart and put it away, and I’ll be very happy with it, so will you.
Walmart and Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) are giving investors two different retail stories. Walmart continues to grow through e-commerce, advertising and membership, but U.S. comparable sales have slowed. Target is showing a sharper recovery under CEO Michael Fiddelke, but still has to prove that its improvement can be sustained.
Walmart’s Growth Story Still Has the Edge
Walmart Inc.’s fiscal second quarter of 2027 revenue rose 5.9% to $187.9 billion, while global e-commerce sales increased 23%, advertising revenue rose 38%, and membership-fee revenue increased 17%. Walmart U.S. comparable sales, however, rose just 2.6%. CEO John Furner said Walmart would use its $2.9 billion tariff refund for customer experience and price investments.
Target Corporation’s second-quarter net sales rose 5.3% to $26.5 billion, comparable sales increased 3.8%, and traffic rose 3.6%. Digital comparable sales climbed 8.7%, while Target said it had cut prices on more than 10,000 items. CEO Michael Fiddelke said consumers were responding strongly to changes the company had made, while noting that the turnaround would take time.
Wall Street Still Sees a Stronger Case for Walmart
Recent analyst calls remain more favorable toward Walmart Inc.. Tigress Financial analyst Ivan Feinseth reaffirmed a Buy rating and $155 price target on August 31. The firm pointed out Walmart’s AI-driven platform transformation and multiple higher-margin growth opportunities. Morgan Stanley maintained a Buy rating with a $125 target on August 24. The research identified resilient Walmart+ growth and expanding digital scale as supporting Walmart’s long-term earnings power.
Meanwhile, Target Corporation’s recent research is more balanced. Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma reiterated a Hold rating and a $154 price target on September 4. Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane also maintained a Hold rating on August 24 with a $161 target. The research cited sentiment recovery and cost pressures as factors keeping Target’s risk-reward balanced.
Walmart Faces a Valuation Test
Walmart Inc.’s main risk is the combination of slower U.S. sales and a demanding valuation. The stock traded at 37.31 times forward earnings as of September 4, leaving investors paying a sizable multiple for future earnings growth. Walmart’s 2.6% U.S. comparable-sales growth, excluding fuel, was its weakest quarterly pace in six years. At the same time, the company is investing in lower prices while expanding higher-margin businesses, creating a risk that weaker store growth or continued price investment could put pressure on earnings.
Target Corporation faces a more direct execution test. Its $4.11 second-quarter EPS included a $1.65 benefit from tariff refunds. Excluding that benefit, adjusted EPS still increased 20% year over year, but the headline earnings growth significantly benefited from the refund. It also has to maintain traffic gains while funding lower prices and investments in stores and merchandising.
Hedge Funds Favor Walmart Over Target
As per Insider Monkey’s tracking of more than 1,000 hedge funds, 111 funds held WMT in the second quarter, up from 99 in the prior quarter. Of those, Fisher Asset Management was the biggest shareholder with 41.5 million shares. Target’s hedge fund holder count fell to 63 from 68. As per Insider Monkey, AQR Capital Management was the top shareholder of the quarter after increasing its holdings by 11% to 3.3 million shares. Short interest also shows greater measured caution toward Target as it stood at approximately 3% compared to Walmart’s 1.4%.
Target Corporation has the more visible turnaround catalyst, but Walmart Inc. has an established earnings engine. For investors choosing between the two, Target needs to prove the recovery can last while Walmart needs to prove its premium valuation can be supported by continued growth.
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