We came across a bullish thesis on JBS N.V. on Danny’s Substack by Danny Green. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on JBS. JBS N.V.’s share was trading at $16.18 as of February 19th. JBS’s trailing and forward P/E were 15.53 and 3.87 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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JBS S.A. is a global protein powerhouse with unmatched scale across beef, pork, poultry, and diversified products, including plant-based proteins, leather, and biodiesel. Its operations span 250+ facilities and 180+ countries, giving it significant bargaining power, distribution advantages, and integration from livestock to final products.
Strong secular demand for protein, driven by population growth and rising incomes in emerging markets, underpins long-term growth, and geographic expansion—particularly in Europe through acquisitions—is poised to capture further market share. However, the business remains exposed to commodity cycles, livestock supply constraints, trade barriers, tariffs, and macro volatility, which compress margins and make planning challenging.
Recent results reflect this mix: Q3 2025 net sales rose ~13% to $22.6 billion, but profit and EBITDA declined due to tight U.S. beef supplies and rising input costs. Competitive strength derives from scale, integration, and diversification, but the moat is moderate, as rivals like Tyson Foods, Marfrig, and BRF, alongside changing consumer preferences toward alternative proteins, can pressure market share. Management is opportunistic, pursuing ~$2 billion annual CapEx for facility modernization and higher-margin segments, enabled by a dual NYSE listing for cheaper capital, though leverage (~2.4x) and cyclical risk require careful discipline.
Key risks include commodity cycles, disease outbreaks, ESG/legal pressures, and trade disruptions, which could materially affect profitability. Upside exists through European acquisitions, operational improvements, and growth in prepared foods or plant-based proteins, while downside remains tied to cyclicality and regulatory pressures. Valuation is attractive, with a forward P/E of ~9.1 and strong ROE (~23.7%), though earnings volatility warrants caution. Overall, JBS offers a balanced risk/reward, with long-term value capture contingent on execution and macro stability.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) by Investing Lawyer in February 2025, which highlighted the company’s defensive positioning in the spice and flavoring industry, consistent dividend growth, and structural support around key price levels for long-term investors. MKC’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 16.10% since our coverage. Danny Green shares a similar view but emphasizes JBS’s global scale, protein market integration, and growth through geographic expansion and operational improvements.
JBS N.V. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 38 hedge fund portfolios held JBS at the end of the third quarter which was 38 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of JBS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than JBS and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.
