Itron, Inc. (ITRI): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Itron, Inc. on r/stockstobuytoday by GOAT_Druckenmiller_. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ITRI. Itron, Inc.’s share was trading at $100.45 as of February 2nd. ITRI’s trailing and forward P/E were 17.79 and 16.95, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Itron, Inc., a technology, solutions, and service company, provides end-to-end solutions that help manage energy, water, and smart city operations worldwide. ITRI is undergoing a fundamental transformation that the market has yet to fully appreciate, creating a compelling bullish investment opportunity.

While investors continue to view Itron primarily as a utility metering and network hardware vendor characterized by lumpy, project-based revenue, the company is increasingly evolving into a software- and services-led grid-edge platform with a growing base of recurring, higher-quality revenue. Itron is building an operating layer embedded within utility workflows, where long-term value is driven by Outcomes—its software, analytics, and managed services offerings—alongside execution and resiliency solutions that become mission-critical to utility operations.

This shift is supported by Itron’s expanding installed and managed endpoint base, which provides a durable foundation for monetization through higher attach rates, rising average revenue per user, and deeper wallet share over time. Although near-term results may remain noisy due to project timing, permitting delays, and labor constraints, these issues are largely transitory and do not undermine the company’s improving revenue mix, margin profile, and free cash flow trajectory.

Importantly, the “new Itron” is less dependent on incremental endpoint deployments and more focused on recurring software and services revenue, which should support resilient earnings even during periods of uneven quarterly revenue recognition.

The market’s focus on backlog timing volatility obscures the structural improvement in Itron’s business quality. Strategic software and workflow acquisitions further strengthen Itron’s position by enhancing utility stickiness, accelerating implementation cycles, and expanding the scope of Outcomes monetization.

As this transition becomes clearer over the next 6–12 months, Itron’s valuation multiple has room to rerate meaningfully. With the stock trading around $96.46, the $130 price target implies approximately 35% upside, reflecting confidence that Itron’s SaaS-driven grid-edge strategy will unlock sustainable growth and higher-quality cash flows.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) by Durable Value Creators in November 2024, which highlighted the company’s smart water ecosystem, AMI adoption, and expanding SaaS-driven recurring revenue. BMI’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 30.74% since our coverage due to valuation compression. GOAT_Druckenmiller_ shares a similar but emphasizes Itron’s grid-edge SaaS transformation and Outcomes monetization.

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Disclosure: None.