Itron, Inc. (ITRI): A Bull Case Theory 

We came across a bullish thesis on Itron, Inc. on Asymmetric Edge’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ITRI. Itron, Inc.’s share was trading at $99.04 as of November 28th. ITRI’s trailing and forward P/E were 17.78 and 16.16 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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Itron Inc. (ITRI) is a leading technology company transforming the utility and critical infrastructure sector by addressing the challenges of aging systems in electricity, gas, and water networks. Legacy infrastructure was not designed for renewable energy, electric vehicles, or distributed generation, creating inefficiencies, safety risks, and regulatory compliance challenges.

Itron solves these problems with an integrated three-pronged approach: device solutions (smart meters and sensors), networked solutions (data collection and analytics platforms), and high-margin Outcomes services (software, grid management, and optimization solutions). This strategy shifts utilities from reactive problem-solving to proactive, intelligent management, enabling real-time monitoring, leak detection, and automated regulatory compliance.

The company operates one of the largest global networks of connected infrastructure, with over 225 million endpoints across 100+ countries and 8,000 utilities, creating strong recurring revenue potential and high switching costs. Itron’s innovation leadership, including Automated Meter Reading (AMR), Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), and Distributed Intelligence, allows utilities to process and act on data locally, improving reliability and efficiency.

Its R&D investment of 7–8% of revenue focuses on high-impact areas such as grid-edge intelligence, distributed energy resource management, and AI-driven analytics, aligning technology development with the shift to software and services. Itron’s financial and operational transformation is evident: Outcomes revenue grew 11% year-over-year in 2025, gross margins expanded to 36%, and free cash flow generation has strengthened despite cyclical utility spending.

The company benefits from long-term contracts, high switching costs, and a $4.5 billion backlog, providing revenue visibility and resilience. At current valuation, Itron trades near fair value, with realistic upside of ~13% and significant optionality under optimistic scenarios. Its ongoing software transformation, global scale, and exposure to secular utility modernization trends position Itron as a compelling investment, particularly for growth-focused investors willing to embrace its cyclical exposure.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Badger Meter, Inc. (BMI) by Durable Value Creators in November 2024, which highlighted its smart water ecosystem, advanced metering infrastructure, and strong recurring software revenue. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately by 18.56% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as BMI’s market leadership and long-term growth potential remain intact. Itron, Inc. (ITRI) shares a similar focus on utility infrastructure technology but emphasizes a broader transformation across electricity, gas, and water networks.

Itron, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 35 hedge fund portfolios held ITRI at the end of the second quarter which was 40 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ITRI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ITRI and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.