We came across a bullish thesis on The Trade Desk, Inc. on Compounding Your Wealth’s Substack by Sergey. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TTD. The Trade Desk, Inc.’s share was trading at $25.17 as of March 4th. TTD’s trailing and forward P/E were 17 and 14 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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The Trade Desk (TTD) is a leading independent programmatic advertising platform, offering AI-driven tools to optimize digital content delivery across devices and channels. Founded in 2009 and headquartered in Ventura, California, the company has grown revenue from $308 million in 2017 to $2.44 billion in 2024, with net income of $393 million, serving a global client base through 25 offices.
Its platform, powered by Kokai AI, Unified ID 2.0, OpenPath, and Deal Desk, provides privacy-forward, data-driven targeting, high conversion efficiency, and seamless integration with publishers and enterprise APIs, supporting a 95%+ customer retention rate for 27 consecutive quarters.
TTD’s Connected TV (CTV) and retail media segments are key growth drivers, with CTV representing ~50% of revenue and continuing to scale rapidly globally. Joint Business Plans, now accounting for roughly half of total business, deepen strategic engagement with top-tier clients, while OpenPath and Open Ads expand transparent supply access. Despite slowing revenue growth from 27.4% YoY in Q3 2024 to 17.7% in Q3 2025, underlying growth excluding political advertising remains strong, with Q4 guidance implying ~18.5% growth, potentially 22.5% with outperformance.
TTD’s strong economic moat stems from scale, network effects, switching costs, brand strength, and proprietary IP, while EBITDA margins exceed 40% and cash balances of $1.445 billion ensure a robust balance sheet.
The stock, down 73% from its all-time high, now trades near historical lows with a forward P/E of 18.9 and EV/Sales of 5.3, offering an attractive risk/reward for long-term investors given high-quality growth, leadership in CTV, international expansion, and strategic product innovation across its platform. Overall, TTD represents a compelling opportunity to gain exposure to the rapidly expanding programmatic advertising market with significant upside potential.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) by FckYouMoney in May 2025, highlighting its market leadership in connected TV, retail media, cookieless identity, strong profitability, and 95%+ customer retention. TTD’s stock has depreciated by approximately 54.64% since coverage due to macro ad-spend softness. Sergey shares a similar view but emphasizes platform economics, AI-driven Kokai adoption, and underlying growth, providing a deeper perspective on long-term upside.
The Trade Desk, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 60 hedge fund portfolios held TTD at the end of the fourth quarter which was 42 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of TTD as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TTD and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.
