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Is JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS)’s Rebound For Real?

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On Friday, JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE:JKS) will release its latest quarterly results. Given the sad state of the Chinese solar industry, JinkoSolar has a long way to go before it can demonstrate its ability to survive what’s becoming a major shakeout among China’s best-known solar companies.

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE:JKS)

JinkoSolar hasn’t been profitable for a long time, and it doesn’t look like it will become profitable anytime soon. But investors apparently hope that if it can get through the inevitable consolidation among China’s solar players, then a better pricing environment will help it reach profitability soon enough to save it from ruin. Let’s take an early look at what’s been happening with JinkoSolar over the past quarter and what we’re likely to see in its quarterly report.

Stats on JinkoSolar

Analyst EPS Estimate ($1.66)
Year-Ago EPS ($2.55)
Revenue Estimate $168.25 million
Change From Year-Ago Revenue 0%
Earnings Beats in Past 4 Quarters 1

Source: Yahoo! Finance.

How can JinkoSolar keep a lid on its losses this quarter?
Analysts have severely slashed their views of JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE:JKS)’s earnings prospects, more than doubling their loss estimates for the March quarter and widening their full-year 2013 loss estimates by more than $3 per share. Yet the stock has regained all the ground it lost during the month of March and then some, actually rising 6% since the end of February.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE:JKS)’s performance is how it came in the face of a devastating miss in its previous quarter’s results. The company missed revenue estimates by almost 25% and suffered a loss more than half again what investors had expected. Yet the stock actually gained on the news, due largely to guidance that JinkoSolar would ship 270 to 300 megawatts in modules during the March quarter.

More recently, investors have started to get more optimistic about the entire Chinese solar industry. A couple weeks ago, JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:JASO) saw its stock rise 65% after reporting a narrower than expected loss and successfully paying off convertible notes in full, managing to avoid the default issues that have hurt Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE:STP) and LDK Solar Co., Ltd (ADR) (NYSE:LDK) .

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