Is ASTS a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. on R. Dennis’s Substack by OppCost. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ASTS. AST SpaceMobile, Inc.’s share was trading at $89.11 as of March 16th.
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AST SpaceMobile, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs and develops the constellation of BlueBird satellites in the United States. ASTS presents a compelling bullish setup through the sale of long-dated $35 strike puts expiring January 2028, as the trade is structured around the company’s expected fundamental de-risking over the next two years.
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With the stock trading near $85.73, the position provides a substantial margin of safety, as shares would need to decline by roughly 60% before breaching the strike, while the effective entry price of $30.10 aligns with pre-commercialization support levels. The thesis is underpinned by clear operational catalysts, including the planned deployment of 45–60 satellites by 2026, which is expected to enable continuous coverage across key markets and transition the company from a pre-revenue concept to a scaled infrastructure provider.
This transformation is further supported by over $1 billion in committed revenue from strategic partners such as AT&T and Verizon, reinforcing visibility into future cash flows. As these milestones are achieved, improving business fundamentals are likely to compress implied volatility, enhancing the profitability of the trade through theta decay.
Additionally, backing from major telecom players and integration with U.S. government entities provides a layer of credibility and reduces existential risk, which is critical for a capital-intensive space-based communications model. Overall, the setup offers an attractive risk-reward profile, combining a double-digit yield with a high probability that the underlying business trajectory supports sustained valuation levels well above the strike price.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s transition toward commercialization, satellite deployment progress, strong liquidity, and early telecom and government traction. ASTS’s stock price has appreciated by approximately 239.59% since our coverage. OppCost shares a similar view but emphasizes on an options-based strategy, margin of safety, and volatility compression.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 33 hedge fund portfolios held ASTS at the end of the fourth quarter which was 25 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ASTS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ASTS and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
Disclosure: None.
