We came across a bullish thesis on Airbnb, Inc. on Speedwell Memos’s Substack by Speedwell Research. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on ABNB. Airbnb, Inc.’s share was trading at $135.54 as of March 4th. ABNB’s trailing and forward P/E were 33.07 and 25.77, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
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Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform for stays, experiences, and services worldwide. ABNB reported a strong 4Q25, with revenues growing 12% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, marking a sequential reacceleration of 100 basis points and surpassing its “at least double digits” growth target.
Gross Booking Value (GBV) grew 16% year-over-year, the strongest pace in two years, while Nights and Seats increased 10%. CEO Brian Chesky highlighted that iterative product improvements in 2025 generated hundreds of millions in revenue, with Project Why expected to deliver further gains.
Localized efforts, such as elevating Brazil from a Top 10 to Top 5 market, and innovations like “Reserve Now Pay Later,” have reduced friction, increased booking lead times, and encouraged larger-home bookings. Improvements to Airbnb’s API interactions with property management systems have simplified cross-platform pricing, likely boosting bookings.
Operating profits remained flat at $2.5 billion despite revenue growth due to increased investment in Experiences and AI, though Airbnb is already incorporating AI into the app without requiring massive capital expenditure. Focus is on creating a novel interface that blends images and user experience, while also cross-selling Experiences to build engagement.
Sponsored ads and loyalty programs remain future monetization opportunities. While AI adoption poses some risk, Airbnb’s exclusive inventory, insurance protections, review ecosystem, and brand loyalty insulate it from direct competition, as replicating the platform’s network effects and curated experience is difficult.
Even if AI agents gain traction, Airbnb’s user preference and superior experience are likely to sustain direct traffic and bookings. Overall, Airbnb demonstrates strong growth momentum, robust product innovation, and strategic positioning to leverage AI, creating a compelling investment case with limited downside and meaningful long-term upside.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) by Chit Chat Stocks in May 2025, which highlighted the expansion of Experiences and Services to deepen user engagement and broaden Airbnb’s value proposition. ABNB’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 0.91% since our coverage. Speedwell Research shares a similar view but emphasizes 4Q25 results, AI integration, and localized product innovations.
Airbnb, Inc. is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 80 hedge fund portfolios held ABNB at the end of the fourth quarter which was 71 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of ABNB as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than ABNB and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None.
