Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (NYSE:IVR) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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So, both of those two things were — we’re going to do throughout the year.

Doug Harter: Great. Appreciate that.

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Eric Hagen with BTIG. Your line is open.

Eric Hagen: Hey, good morning. How are you doing? Hey, on the specified pools, can you give us a sense for how much pay-ups are right now for the bonds that you’re focused on buying relative to where those payoffs have been historically? And do you feel like there’s a good way to think about how much relative strength those bonds can show in different interest rate rallies?

Brian Norris: Hey Eric. Good to hear from you. It’s Brian. I think — specified pools as I mentioned, the payouts still improve in the fourth quarter, given what we saw happen in the rates market. Those have come off a little bit. And so far in the first quarter, we had — rates are now up 45 to 50 basis points since year-end. So, you’d expect some softening in payouts so we’ve seen that. But our weighted average payout, I think is, what, 0.4 points. So, I think our exposure to those changes is fairly limited. I think the FICO and LTV stories and even the geo stories are pretty low pay us. And so there’s not a lot of change that goes on in those. It’s really kind of driven by the changes in loan balance that are a little bit higher pay us, so call it, 0.5 point to 0.75 point.

So, those will change as the interest rate markets kind of adjust around that. But we’re still — it hasn’t changed kind of what we’re targeting as far as attractive additions at this point. We still think that the TBA market will continue to have issues and that implied financing will continue to be higher there than it is in specified pool. So, to the extent that we are looking to add, at this point, it would certainly be in specified pool.

Eric Hagen: Do you feel like there’s anything that would catalyze dollar roll specialness aside from the Fed shutting off Q2 or making adjustments to Q2 [ph]?

Brian Norris: Yes, I think if we were to see a significant return from banks. We have seen some encouraging signs from them over the last few months, and they’ve at least stopped running off their portfolio as significantly as they had been. But I do think that banks are really the primary driver of demand for those generic type securities. And so that PPA market is really driven by supply and demand dynamics. And until that starts to improve, it’s hard to envision the dollar roll market improving all that much because, quite frankly, the other aspect of that is the convexity profile of the deliverables. And that is not appearing to get any better as loan balance continue to — loan balances continue to increase.

Eric Hagen: Right. That’s helpful. The book value range that you gave quarter-to-date, is that inclusive of the approved dividend? Or are you netting out the accrued dividend?

Brian Norris: That nets out the dividend.

Eric Hagen: Netted out. Okay. Thank you guys so much.

Brian Norris: Sure.

Operator: Thank you. And at this time, we have no further questions. Greg, I’ll hand it back to you.

Greg Seals: Okay. Thank you very much. Thanks everyone for your participation and look forward to speaking to you next quarter.

Operator: Thank you. That concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

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